Tom Roberts

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Tom Roberts

Financial Stability
Model Development and Research

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

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A Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities

Staff Analytical Note 2017-24 Thibaut Duprey, Tom Roberts
This note presents a composite indicator of Canadian financial system vulnerabilities—the Vulnerabilities Barometer. It aims to complement the Bank of Canada’s vulnerabilities assessment by adding a quantitative and synthesized perspective to the more granular (distributional) analysis presented in the Financial System Review.

A Counterfactual Valuation of the Stock Index as a Predictor of Crashes

Staff Working Paper 2017-38 Tom Roberts
Stock market fundamentals would not seem to meaningfully predict returns over a shorter-term horizon—instead, I shift focus to severe downside risk (i.e., crashes).
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G17, G19

Household Risk Assessment Model

Technical Report No. 106 Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts
Household debt can be an important source of vulnerability to the financial system. This technical report describes the Household Risk Assessment Model (HRAM) that has been developed at the Bank of Canada to stress test household balance sheets at the individual level.
Content Type(s): Technical Reports Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, C63, C65, D, D0, D1, D14

The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada: 2005–10

Staff Working Paper 2016-41 Jason Allen, Timothy Grieder, Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts
This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G28
December 15, 2015

Indebted Households and Potential Vulnerabilities for the Canadian Financial System: A Microdata Analysis

Over the past decade, an increasing proportion of households in Canada have become highly indebted relative to their income. These highly indebted households now hold one-fifth of total Canadian household debt.Simulations suggest that this greater degree of household indebtedness could exacerbate the impact of shocks to income and interest rates relative to the pre-crisis period. However, an assessment of the vulnerability of the Canadian financial system should, among other factors, account for the ability of Canadian financial institutions to withstand losses from the household sector.

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Refereed journals

  • "The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada"
    (with Jason Allen, and Brian Peterson), Journal of Financial Intermediation (forthcoming).

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