How to Manage Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Risks: A New Framework
Monetary policy decisions need to consider all potential outcomes, not just the most likely path for the economy. This is especially true in the presence of elevated financial system vulnerabilities, which lead to increased downside risks for future growth. In a novel risk-management framework, we decompose the outlook for the distribution of future gross domestic product (GDP) growth into macroeconomic and financial stability risks. When analyzing the efficacy of policy tools, we find that macroprudential tightening is substantially more effective than monetary policy at reducing downside risks to future GDP growth.