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20 Results

January 15, 2024

Flood risk and residential lending

We present key findings of a recent study that evaluates the credit risk that flooding poses to the residential lending activities of Canadian banks and credit unions. Results show that such risk currently appears modest but could become larger with climate change.

Climate-Related Flood Risk to Residential Lending Portfolios in Canada

We assess the potential financial risks of current and projected flooding caused by extreme weather events in Canada. We focus on the residential real estate secured lending (RESL) portfolios of Canadian financial institutions (FIs) because RESL portfolios are an important component of FIs’ balance sheets and because the assets used to secure such loans are immobile and susceptible to climate-related extreme weather events.

Identifying Nascent High-Growth Firms Using Machine Learning

Staff Working Paper 2023-53 Stephanie Houle, Ryan Macdonald
Firms that grow rapidly have the potential to usher in new innovations, products or processes (Kogan et al. 2017), become superstar firms (Haltiwanger et al. 2013) and impact the aggregate labour share (Autor et al. 2020; De Loecker et al. 2020). We explore the use of supervised machine learning techniques to identify a population of nascent high-growth firms using Canadian administrative firm-level data.

Cryptoasset Ownership and Use in Canada: An Update for 2022

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-14 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Doina Rusu
We find that Bitcoin ownership declined from 13% in 2021 to 10% in 2022. This drop occurred against a background of steep price declines and an increasingly tight regulatory atmosphere.

Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for policy-makers to closely monitor disruptions to the retail and food business sectors. We present a new method to measure business opening and closing rates using real-time data from Google Places, the dataset behind the Google Maps service.

Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning

Staff Working Paper 2020-33 Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez
Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash.

Sample Calibration of the Online CFM Survey

Technical Report No. 118 Marie-Hélène Felt, David Laferrière
The Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) survey uses non-probability sampling for data collection, so selection bias is likely. We outline methods for obtaining survey weights and discuss the conditions necessary for these weights to eliminate selection bias. We obtain calibration weights for the 2018 and 2019 online CFM samples.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83

2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey: Sample Calibration and Variance Estimation

Technical Report No. 114 Heng Chen, Marie-Hélène Felt, Christopher Henry
This technical report describes sampling, weighting and variance estimation for the Bank of Canada’s 2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey. Under quota sampling, a raking ratio method is implemented to generate weights with both post-stratification and nonparametric nonresponse weight adjustments.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83

What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure

Staff Discussion Paper 2017-11 Sarah Miller, David Amirault, Laurent Martin
Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada.
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