E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

• Making It Real: Bringing Research Models into Central Bank Projections

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-29 Marc-André Gosselin, Sharon Kozicki

  Macroeconomic projections and risk analyses play an important role in guiding monetary policy decisions. Models are integral to this process. This paper discusses how the Bank of Canada brings research models and lessons learned from those models into the central bank projection environment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C51, E, E3, E37, E4, E47, E5, E52

• Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee

  We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15

• International Portfolio Rebalancing and Fiscal Policy Spillovers

  Staff Working Paper 2023-56 Sami Alpanda, Uluc Aysun, Serdar Kabaca

  We evaluate, both empirically and theoretically, the spillover effects that debt-financed fiscal policy interventions of the United States have on other economies. We consider a two-country model with international portfolio rebalancing effects. We show that US fiscal expansions would increase global long-term rates and hinder economic activity in the rest of the world.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F41, F44

• Digitalization: Prices of Goods and Services

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-27 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler

  This paper outlines and assesses the various channels through which digitalization can affect prices of goods and services.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D2, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, L, L1, L11

• Uncovering the Differences Among Displaced Workers: Evidence from Canadian Job Separation Records

  Staff Working Paper 2023-55 Serdar Birinci, Youngmin Park, Kurt See, Thomas Michael Pugh

  We revisit the measurement of the sources and consequences of job displacement using Canadian job separation records.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32, J, J3, J31, J6, J63, J65

• Variations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food Inflation

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-24 Daniel Hyun, Jacky Lee

  This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q0, Q02, Q1, Q11, Q17, Q18

• Should Banks Be Worried About Dividend Restrictions?

  Staff Working Paper 2023-49 Josef Schroth

  A regulator would want to restrict dividends to force banks to rebuild capital during a crisis. But such a policy is not time-consistent. A time-consistent policy would let banks gradually rebuild capital and pay dividends even when their equity remains below pre-crisis levels.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Credit risk management, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E3, E32, E4, E44

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt Relief Policies During Recessions

  Staff Working Paper 2023-48 Soyoung Lee

  A large-scale reduction in mortgage principal can strengthen a recovery, support house prices and lower foreclosures. The nature of the intervention shapes its impact, which rests on how resources are redistributed across households. The availability of bankruptcy on unsecured debt changes the response to large-scale mortgage relief by reducing precautionary savings.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Debt management, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E6

• Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis

  Staff Working Paper 2023-45 Tony Chernis

  I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37

• Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-18 Vivian Chu, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Christopher Hajzler, Pierre-Yves Yanni

  We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digitalization, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52