Toward 2021: Research

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17 result(s)

Multi-Product Pricing: Theory and Evidence from Large Retailers in Israel

Staff Working Paper 2020-12 Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Sigal Ribon, Rodolfo Rigato
Standard theories of price adjustment are based on the problem of a single-product firm, and therefore they may not be well suited to analyze price dynamics in the economy with multiproduct firms.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D22, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, L, L1, L11

The Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian Perspective

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-1 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes
We analyze money financing of fiscal transfers (helicopter money) in two simple New Keynesian models: a “textbook” model in which all money is non-interest-bearing (e.g., all money is currency), and a more realistic model with interest-bearing reserves.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credibility, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Transmission of monetary policy, Uncertainty and monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E4, E41, E43, E5, E51, E52, E58, E6, E61, E63

Managing GDP Tail Risk

Staff Working Paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G0, G01

Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound

Staff Working Paper 2020-2 Jasmina Arifovic, Alex Grimaud, Isabelle Salle, Gauthier Vermandel
This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Credibility, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, E, E3, E32, E5, E52

Monetary Policy and Government Debt Dynamics Without Commitment

Staff Working Paper 2019-52 Dmitry Matveev
I show that maturity considerations affect the optimal conduct of monetary and fiscal policy during a period of government debt reduction. I consider a New Keynesian model and study a dynamic game of monetary and fiscal policy authorities without commitment, characterizing the incentives that drive the choice of interest rate.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63

Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments

Staff Working Paper 2019-27 George Evans, Cars Hommes, Isabelle Salle, Bruce McGough
Most models in finance assume that agents make trading plans over the infinite future. We consider instead that they are boundedly rational and may only form forecasts over a limited horizon.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D84, E

The Effects of Inflation Targeting for Financial Development

Staff Analytical Note 2019-21 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Amy (Qijia) Li
The adoption of inflation targeting (IT) by central banks leads to an increase of 10 to 20 percent in measures of financial development, with a lag. We also find evidence that the financial sector benefits of IT adoption were higher for early-adopting central banks.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Inflation targets, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E58

Central Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab Experiments

Staff Working Paper 2019-21 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen
We use controlled laboratory experiments to test the causal effects of central bank communication on economic expectations and to distinguish the underlying mechanisms of those effects. In an experiment where subjects learn to forecast economic variables, we find that central bank communication has a stabilizing effect on individual and aggregate outcomes and that the size of the effect varies with the type of communication.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation, Transmission of monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E5, E52