Oleksiy Kryvtsov

Senior Research Officer

Bio

Oleksiy Kryvtsov is the Senior Research Officer in the Economic and Financial Research Department. His research interests center on business cycle fluctuations, with a special focus on monetary theory and policy. Oleksiy contributed to topics including consumer price behaviour, real effects of monetary policy shocks, dynamics of markups and costs over the business cycle. Oleksiy received his PhD in Economics from the University of Minnesota in 2004.


Show all

Staff Discussion Papers

Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-17 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Tamon Takamura
This note examines the merits of monetary policy adjustments in response to financial stability concerns, taking into account changes in the state of knowledge since the renewal of the inflation-targeting agreement in 2011. A key financial system vulnerability in Canada is elevated household indebtedness: as more and more households are nearing their debt-capacity limits, the likelihood and severity of a large negative correction in housing markets are also increasing.

The Optimal Level of the Inflation Target: A Selective Review of the Literature and Outstanding Issues

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-8 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Rhys R. Mendes
Bank of Canada research done prior to the most recent renewal of the inflation-control agreement in 2011 concluded that the benefits associated with a target below 2 per cent were insufficient to justify the increased risk of being constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates.

On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Recent Developments and Research

Staff Discussion Paper 2015-7 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Miguel Molico, Ben Tomlin
Because financial and macroeconomic conditions are tightly interconnected, financial stability considerations are an important element of any monetary policy framework. Yet, the circumstances under which it would be appropriate for the Bank to use monetary policy to lean against financial risks need to be more fully specified (Côté 2014).

Inventories in ToTEM

Staff Discussion Paper 2010-9 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Yang Zhang
ToTEM – the Bank of Canada’s principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy – is extended to include inventories. In the model, firms accumulate inventories of finished goods for their role in facilitating the demand for goods.

Inventories, Stockouts, and ToTEM

Staff Discussion Paper 2010-8 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Yang Zhang
Inventory investment is an important component of the Canadian business cycle. Despite its small average size – less than 1 per cent of output – it exhibits volatile procyclical fluctuations, accounting for almost one-third of output variance.

Staff Working Papers

Central Bank Communication That Works: Lessons from Lab Experiments

Staff Working Paper 2019-21 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen
We use controlled laboratory experiments to test the causal effects of central bank communication on economic expectations and to distinguish the underlying mechanisms of those effects. In an experiment where subjects learn to forecast economic variables, we find that central bank communication has a stabilizing effect on individual and aggregate outcomes and that the size of the effect varies with the type of communication.

Price Selection

Staff Working Paper 2018-44 Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We propose a simple, model-free way to measure price selection and its impact on inflation. Price selection exists when prices that change in response to aggregate shocks are not representative of the overall population of prices. Due to selection, increases (decreases) in inflation can be amplified because adjusting prices tend to originate from levels far below (above) the average.

On the Evolution of the United Kingdom Price Distributions

We propose a functional principal components method that accounts for stratified random sample weighting and time dependence in the observations to understand the evolution of distributions of monthly micro-level consumer prices for the United Kingdom (UK).

On the Importance of Sales for Aggregate Price Flexibility

Staff Working Paper 2014-45 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Nicolas Vincent
Macroeconomists have traditionally ignored the behavior of temporary price markdowns (“sales”) by retailers. Although sales are common in the micro price data, they are assumed to be unrelated to macroeconomic phenomena and generally filtered out.

Expectations and Monetary Policy: Experimental Evidence

Staff Working Paper 2013-44 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen
The effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on market expectations of its future actions. In a standard New Keynesian business-cycle model with rational expectations, systematic monetary policy reduces the variance of inflation and the output gap by at least two-thirds.

Is There a Quality Bias in the Canadian CPI? Evidence from Micro Data

Staff Working Paper 2013-24 Oleksiy Kryvtsov
Rising consumer prices may reflect shifts by consumers to new higher-priced products, mostly for durable and semi-durable goods. I apply Bils’ (2009) methodology to newly available Canadian consumer price data for non-shelter goods and services to estimate how price increases can be divided between quality growth and price inflation.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, M, M1, M11, O, O4, O47

Inventories, Markups and Real Rigidities in Sticky Price Models of the Canadian Economy

Staff Working Paper 2011-9 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Virgiliu Midrigan
Recent New Keynesian models of macroeconomy view nominal cost rigidities, rather than nominal price rigidities, as the key feature that accounts for the observed persistence in output and inflation. Kryvtsov and Midrigan (2010a,b) reassess these conclusions by combining a theory based on nominal rigidities and storable goods with direct evidence on inventories for the U.S.

Adopting Price-Level Targeting under Imperfect Credibility in ToTEM

Using the Bank of Canada's main projection and policy-analysis model, ToTEM, this paper measures the welfare gains of switching from inflation targeting to price-level targeting under imperfect credibility. Following the policy change, private agents assign a probability to the event that the policy-maker will revert to inflation-targeting next period.

Information Flows and Aggregate Persistence

Staff Working Paper 2009-11 Oleksiy Kryvtsov
Models with imperfect information that generate persistent monetary nonneutrality predominantly rely on assumptions leading to substantial heterogeneity of information across price-setters. This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model in which the degree of heterogeneity of information is determined endogenously.

Inventories and Real Rigidities in New Keynesian Business Cycle Models

Staff Working Paper 2009-9 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Virgiliu Midrigan
Kryvtsov and Midrigan (2008) study the behavior of inventories in an economy with menu costs, fixed ordering costs and the possibility of stock-outs. This paper extends their analysis to a richer setting that is capable of more closely accounting for the dynamics of the US business cycle.

Journal Publications

Journal articles