Geoffrey R. Dunbar


Geoffrey Dunbar is a Director in the International Economic Analysis Department. His research interests include applied econometrics and the macroeconomic implications of demographic change. He received his PhD in economics from Queen’s University.


International Economic Analysis
International Studies Division

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Curriculum vitae


The Effects of Inflation Targeting for Financial Development

Staff Analytical Note 2019-21 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Amy (Qijia) Li
The adoption of inflation targeting (IT) by central banks leads to an increase of 10 to 20 percent in measures of financial development, with a lag. We also find evidence that the financial sector benefits of IT adoption were higher for early-adopting central banks.

Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns

Staff Working Paper 2018-22 Edouard Djeutem, Geoffrey R. Dunbar
We propose an uncovered expected returns parity (URP) condition for the bilateral spot exchange rate. URP implies that unilateral exchange rate equations are misspecified and that equity returns also affect exchange rates. Fama regressions provide evidence that URP is statistically preferred to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) for nominal bilateral exchange rates between the US dollar and six countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and the UK) at the monthly frequency.

The (Un)Demand for Money in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2018-20 Casey Jones, Geoffrey R. Dunbar
A novel dataset from the Bank of Canada is used to estimate the deposit functions for banknotes in Canada for three denominations: $1,000, $100 and $50. The broad flavour of the empirical findings is that denominations are different monies, and the structural estimates identify the underlying sources of the non-neutrality.

Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions

Staff Working Paper 2017-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Arthur Lewbel, Krishna Pendakur
Resource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed.

The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey Design

Staff Working Paper 2017-43 Heng Chen, Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Rallye Shen
Changes in survey mode (e.g., online, offline) may influence the values of survey responses, and may be particularly problematic when comparing repeated cross-sectional surveys.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8

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Journal Articles

  • "Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions,"
    (with Arthur Lewbel and Krishna Pendakur), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, October 2019.
  • "Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth,"
    Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, Vol. 46(3), pages 811-835, August 2013.
  • "Working parents and total factor productivity growth,"
    Journal of Population Economics, (with Stephen Easton). Springer, Vol. 26(4), pages 1431-1456, October 2013.
  • "The Family and Medical Leave Act and the labor productivity of parents,"
    Economics Letters, Elsevier, Vol. 118(2), pages 334-336, 2013.
  • "Returns-to-scale and the equity premium puzzle,"
    Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Vol. 37(9), pages 1736-1754, 2013.
  • "Children's Resources in Collective Households: Identification, Estimation, and an Application to Child Poverty in Malawi,"
    (with Arthur Lewbel and Krishna Pendakur), American Economic Review, American Economic Association, Vol. 103(1), pages 438-71, February, 2013.


  • Ph.D., Queen’s University (2006)
  • M.A., University of Victoria (1997)
  • BAH, Queen’s University (1992)

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