Geoffrey R. Dunbar
Senior Research Advisor
- Ph.D., Queen’s University (2006)
- M.A., University of Victoria (1997)
- BAH, Queen’s University (1992)
Geoffrey Dunbar is a Senior Research Advisor in the International Economic Analysis Department at the Bank of Canada. His research focuses on both applied microeconomics and macroeconomics with a current interest on the effects of extreme weather events for commodities and trade. Previous research interests have included exchange rates and the role of family demographics on inequality and productivity. He received his PhD in economics from Queen’s University.
Staff analytical notes
Staff discussion papers
Complementarities Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy—Literature ReviewThis paper surveys and summarizes the literature on how fiscal policy and monetary policy can complement each other in stabilizing economic activity.
Staff working papers
Climate Variability and International TradeThis paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection.
Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real?Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States.
Weather the Storms? Hurricanes, Technology and Oil ProductionDo technological improvements mitigate the potential damages from extreme weather events? We show that hurricanes lower offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and that stronger storms have larger impacts. Regulations enacted in 1980 that required improved offshore construction standards only modestly mitigated the production losses.
Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency ReturnsWe propose an uncovered expected returns parity (URP) condition for the bilateral spot exchange rate. URP implies that unilateral exchange rate equations are misspecified and that equity returns also affect exchange rates. Fama regressions provide evidence that URP is statistically preferred to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) for nominal bilateral exchange rates between the US dollar and six countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and the UK) at the monthly frequency.
The (Un)Demand for Money in CanadaA novel dataset from the Bank of Canada is used to estimate the deposit functions for banknotes in Canada for three denominations: $1,000, $100 and $50. The broad flavour of the empirical findings is that denominations are different monies, and the structural estimates identify the underlying sources of the non-neutrality.
Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity RestrictionsResource shares, defined as the fraction of total household spending going to each person in a household, are important for assessing individual material well-being, inequality and poverty. They are difficult to identify because consumption is measured typically at the household level, and many goods are jointly consumed, so that individual-level consumption in multi-person households is not directly observed.
The Mode is the Message: Using Predata as Exclusion Restrictions to Evaluate Survey DesignChanges in survey mode (e.g., online, offline) may influence the values of survey responses, and may be particularly problematic when comparing repeated cross-sectional surveys.
Sheltered Income: Estimating Income Under-Reporting in Canada, 1998 and 2004We use data from the Survey of Financial Security and the Survey of Household Spending to estimate the incidence and extent of income under-reporting in Canada in 1998 and 2004. We estimate that the proportion of households under-reporting income is roughly 35 to 50 per cent in both years.
Demographics and the Demand for CurrencyI use data from the Bank of Canada’s Bank Note Distribution System and exploit a natural experiment offered by the timing of Easter in the Gregorian calendar to analyze the effects of demographic change for currency demand.
- "Identification of Random Resource Shares in Collective Households Without Preference Similarity Restrictions,"
(with Arthur Lewbel and Krishna Pendakur), Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, October 2019.
- "Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth,"
Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, Vol. 46(3), pages 811-835, August 2013.
- "Working parents and total factor productivity growth,"
Journal of Population Economics, (with Stephen Easton). Springer, Vol. 26(4), pages 1431-1456, October 2013.
- "The Family and Medical Leave Act and the labor productivity of parents,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, Vol. 118(2), pages 334-336, 2013.
- "Returns-to-scale and the equity premium puzzle,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Vol. 37(9), pages 1736-1754, 2013.
- "Children's Resources in Collective Households: Identification, Estimation, and an Application to Child Poverty in Malawi,"
(with Arthur Lewbel and Krishna Pendakur), American Economic Review, American Economic Association, Vol. 103(1), pages 438-71, February, 2013.