Saving after Retirement and Preferences for Residual Wealth Staff working paper 2024-21 Giulio Fella, Martin B. Holm, Thomas Michael Pugh We estimate a model of households in Norway with bequest motives, health-dependent utility, and uncertain longevity and health. Our estimates imply strong bequest motives for households both with and without offspring. We interpret this as suggestive evidence that utility from residual wealth represents forces beyond an altruistic bequest motive. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D11, D12, D14, E, E2, E21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach Staff analytical note 2024-12 Dany Brouillette, Tessa Devakos, Raven Wheesk We propose a tool that decomposes TFP growth into sectoral contributions. The analysis incorporates three structural factors—digitalization, aging and climate change policies—and measures their contributions. Overall, we expect that aggregate TFP growth will slow down in the 2020s below both its historical average and the average from the 2010s. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, J, J1, J11, O, O3, O33, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada Staff discussion paper 2024-4 Calista Cheung, James Fudurich, Janki Shah, Farrukh Suvankulov What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D0, G, G3, G38, J, J1, J15 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment Staff analytical note 2024-11 Tessa Devakos, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Craig Johnston, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Ron Rautu, Temel Taskin We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Assessing global potential output growth: April 2024 Staff analytical note 2024-10 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Raheeb Dastagir, Eshini Ekanayake, Justin-Damien Guénette, Helen Lao, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Aidan Spencer, Lin Xiang This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2024 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update Staff analytical note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update Staff analytical note 2024-8 Erik Ens, Alexander Lam, Kurt See, Gabriela Galassi We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy Staff working paper 2023-60 Agostina Brinatti, Xing Guo We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F16, F2, F22, J, J6, J61 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff analytical note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Immigration and Provision of Public Goods: Evidence at the Local Level in the U.S. Staff working paper 2023-57 Anna Maria Mayda, Mine Z. Senses, Walter Steingress Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F2, F22, H, H4, H41, H7, J, J6, J61, J68, R, R5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply