Walter Steingress is a Principal Researcher in the Canadian Economic Studies Division. His research interest lies in International Economics, with a particular emphasis on international migration and international trade. Prior to his tenure at the Bank of Canada, Walter was a Research Economist at the Bank of France. He has been a visiting and adjunct faculty member at Paris School of Economics, Syracuse University, University of Rochester, and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. In 2019, the Canadian Economic Association awarded him the Robert Mundell Prize. Walter earned his PhD from the University of Montreal and holds a master’s degree from Boston University.
Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027–29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour productivity (TLP). Gradual adoption of artificial intelligence is also expected to lift TLP growth over the projection horizon.
Canada’s economic prosperity depends on trade. But global maritime shipping networks have been reshaped in ways that have reduced Canada’s relative connectivity and carrying capacity. This less-central role for the country could mean greater exposure to supply chain disruptions that could increase the cost of doing business.
The arrival of immigrants increases demand for housing and puts upward pressure on shelter prices. Using instrumental variables based on the ancestry composition of residents in US counties, we estimate the causal impact of immigration on local shelter prices.
Using U.S. county-level data from 1990 to 2010, we study the causal impact of immigration on the provision of local public goods. We uncover substantial heterogeneity across immigrants with different skills and immigrants of different generations, which leads to unequal fiscal effects across U.S. counties.
We examine the relationship between firms’ performance and credit constraints affecting export market entry. Using administrative Canadian firm-level data, our findings show that new exporters (a) increase their productivity, (b) raise their leverage ratio and (c) increase investment. We estimate that 48 percent of Canadian manufacturers face binding credit constraints when deciding whether to enter export markets.
This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection.
