Sparks at Bank

Where research and analysis meet the economic issues that matter

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Sparks at Bank features insights and analysis from Bank of Canada economists and researchers. It takes its name from the intersection of Sparks and Bank streets in Ottawa where the Bank’s head office is located.

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Assessing risks to oil prices through options markets

July 3, 2026

After the war in the Middle East began, futures markets hinted at how long oil prices could stay above their pre-war levels. Options on those futures further reveal how investors see the range and balance of risks around future oil prices—which helps central banks assess risks to inflation.

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Disclaimer

Bank of Canada staff produce research and analysis to support the work of the Bank and to advance knowledge in the fields of economics and finance. This research is non-partisan and evidence based. While Sparks at Bank articles discuss issues relevant to the economy and central bank policy, they are produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. The views expressed in each article are solely those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada views.