Sparks at Bank
Where research and analysis meet the economic issues that matter
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Sparks at Bank features insights and analysis from Bank of Canada economists and researchers. It takes its name from the intersection of Sparks and Bank streets in Ottawa where the Bank’s head office is located.
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Forecasting oil prices: What works best and when
October 15, 2026
Oil price forecasts help central banks assess risks to inflation and economic activity. Forecasters often rely on the latest price of oil, on futures markets or on economic models. The best approach depends on how far ahead forecasters are looking and whether they need only a forecast or also an explanation of what’s behind it.
Disclaimer
Bank of Canada staff produce research and analysis to support the work of the Bank and to advance knowledge in the fields of economics and finance. This research is non-partisan and evidence based. While Sparks at Bank articles discuss issues relevant to the economy and central bank policy, they are produced independently from the Bank’s Governing Council. The views expressed in each article are solely those of the authors and may differ from official Bank of Canada views.