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76 Results

Disaggregating Household Sensitivity to Monetary Policy by Expenditure Category

Staff Analytical Note 2018-32 Tony Chernis, Corinne Luu
Because the Bank of Canada has started withdrawing monetary stimulus, monitoring the transmission of these changes to monetary policy will be important. Subcomponents of consumption and housing will likely respond differently to a monetary policy tightening, both in terms of the aggregate effect and timing.

Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails

Staff Working Paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan
We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.

Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-7 Russell Barnett, Konrad Zmitrowicz
During and after the Great Recession of 2008–09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, to provide additional monetary stimulus.

The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2018 Estimates

Staff Analytical Note 2018-22 Xin Scott Chen, José Dorich
The neutral nominal policy rate serves as a benchmark for assessing the degree of monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the policy rate. Since quantitative measures of the neutral rate are subject to considerable uncertainty, Bank staff rely on four different approaches to estimate the Canadian neutral rate.

Ambiguity, Nominal Bond Yields and Real Bond Yields

Staff Working Paper 2018-24 Guihai Zhao
Equilibrium bond-pricing models rely on inflation being bad news for future growth to generate upward-sloping nominal yield curves. We develop a model that can generate upward-sloping nominal and real yield curves by instead using ambiguity about inflation and growth.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12

Noisy Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2018-23 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Luca Gambetti
We introduce limited information in monetary policy. Agents receive signals from the central bank revealing new information (“news") about the future evolution of the policy rate before changes in the rate actually take place. However, the signal is disturbed by noise.

Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns

Staff Working Paper 2018-22 Edouard Djeutem, Geoffrey R. Dunbar
We propose an uncovered expected returns parity (URP) condition for the bilateral spot exchange rate. URP implies that unilateral exchange rate equations are misspecified and that equity returns also affect exchange rates. Fama regressions provide evidence that URP is statistically preferred to uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) for nominal bilateral exchange rates between the US dollar and six countries (Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway, Switzerland and the UK) at the monthly frequency.

Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?

Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy.

What Drives Interbank Loans? Evidence from Canada

Staff Working Paper 2018-5 Narayan Bulusu, Pierre Guérin
We identify the drivers of unsecured and collateralized loan volumes, rates and haircuts in Canada using the Bayesian model averaging approach to deal with model uncertainty. Our results suggest that the key friction driving behaviour in this market is the collateral reallocation cost faced by borrowers.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Wholesale funding JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, E, E4, E43, G, G2, G23
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