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Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update

Staff Analytical Note 2021-6 (English)
Dany Brouillette, Guyllaume Faucher, Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Youngmin Park
April 2021
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Available as: PDF

We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes
Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity
JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E24, E3, E37, E4, E43, E5, E52

DOI: https://doi.org/10.34989/san-2021-6