April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2017-5 Andrew Agopsowicz, Bassirou Gueye, Natalia Kyui, Youngmin Park, Mohanad Salameh, Ben Tomlin This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6
A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions Staff Analytical Note 2017-4 Dany Brouillette, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, James Ketcheson, Olena Kostyshyna, Jonathan Lachaine, Colin Scarffe In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J23
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth Staff Analytical Note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
Can the Common-Factor Hypothesis Explain the Observed Housing Wealth Effect? Staff Working Paper 2016-62 Narayan Bulusu, Jefferson Duarte, Carles Vergara-Alert The common-factor hypothesis is one possible explanation for the housing wealth effect. Under this hypothesis, house price appreciation is related to changes in consumption as long as the available proxies for the common driver of housing and non-housing demand are noisy and housing supply is not perfectly elastic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Housing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, R, R3, R31
Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle? Staff Working Paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Foreign reserves management, Interest rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43
Firm-Specific Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations Staff Working Paper 2016-51 Leonid Karasik, Danny Leung, Ben Tomlin In order to understand what drives aggregate fluctuations, many macroeconomic models point to aggregate shocks and discount the contribution of firm-specific shocks. Recent research from other developed countries, however, has found that aggregate fluctuations are in part driven by idiosyncratic shocks to large firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, L, L6
Interpreting Volatility Shocks as Preference Shocks Staff Working Paper 2016-45 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the relationship between volatility shocks and preference shocks in an analytically tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences and stochastic volatility. I show that there exists an explicit mapping between volatility shocks and preference shocks, and a rise in volatility generates the same impulse responses of macroeconomic aggregates as a negative preference shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3
Implementing Cross-Border Interbank Lending in BoC-GEM-FIN Staff Discussion Paper 2016-19 Malik Shukayev, Argyn Toktamyssov BIS interbank lending data show that the Great Recession generated large and persistent changes in the international interbank lending positions of various countries. The main objective of this study is to understand the role of changes in international interbank credit flows in transmitting shocks across borders. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence from Micro- Level Data Staff Working Paper 2016-40 Dany Brouillette, Olena Kostyshyna, Natalia Kyui We assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Canada using both firm- and worker-level microdata. In particular, we analyze employer-level administrative data from the Major Wage Settlements (MWS) and household-based survey data from the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30
The Case of Serial Disappointment Staff Analytical Note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01