Bio

Ben Tomlin is a Senior Research Director in the International Economic Analysis Department at the Bank of Canada. His primary research interests centre on the analysis of price adjustment, firm dynamics, and international trade in open economies using large micro data sets. Specific topics include exchange rate pass-through, the role of firm relationships in driving aggregate outcomes, and the use of structural models to explore the relationship between international shocks, firm-level adjustment and aggregate productivity. Ben Tomlin received his PhD in economics from Boston University.

Research Field(s): Industrial Organization International Trade and Finance Pricing Behaviour

Staff research

​​Canada’s shifting position in global maritime trade​

Sparks at Bank article Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Patrick McKelvey, Tessa Peer, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin
Canada’s economic prosperity depends on trade. But global maritime shipping networks have been reshaped in ways that have reduced Canada’s relative connectivity and carrying capacity. This less-central role for the country could mean greater exposure to supply chain disruptions that could increase the cost of doing business.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Sparks at Bank article Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data

Staff working paper 2024-20 Patrick Alexander, Lu Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Ben Tomlin
We study how the interaction of market power and nominal price rigidity influences inflation dynamics. We find that pass-through declines with price stickiness when markets are concentrated, which implies a lower slope of the New Keynesian Phillips curve.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L13, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures

Climate Variability and International Trade

Staff working paper 2023-8 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Walter Steingress, Ben Tomlin
This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, F, F1, F14, F18, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Climate change, International trade, finance and competitiveness

Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products

Staff working paper 2019-41 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin
Using highly disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness

Alternative Scenario to the October 2017 MPR Base-Case Projection: Higher Potential Growth

Staff analytical note 2017-18 Jing Yang, Ben Tomlin, Olivier Gervais
We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E24, E27, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada

Staff analytical note 2017-5 Andrew Agopsowicz, Bassirou Gueye, Natalia Kyui, Youngmin Park, Mohanad Salameh, Ben Tomlin
This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply

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Journal publications

Refereed journal

  • "Markups and Inflation in Oligopolistic Markets: Evidence from Wholesale Price Data"
    (with Patrick Alexander, Lu Han and Oleksiy Kryvtsov), American Economic Journal: Macroceconomics (conditionally accepted)
  • “Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products”
    (with Michael Devereux and Wei Dong), Journal of International Economics, 2025, Vol. 154.
  • “Importers and Exporters in Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Currency Invoicing”
    (with Michael Devereux and Wei Dong), Journal of International Economics, 2017, Vol. 105, pp. 187-204.
  • “House Prices, Consumption and the Role of Non-Mortgage Debt”
    (with Katya Kartashova), Journal of Banking and Finance, 2017, Vol. 83, pp. 121-134.
  • "Pricing-to-Market, Currency Invoicing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Producer Prices"
    (with S. Cao and W. Dong), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, Vol. 58, pp. 128-149.
  • "Exchange Rate Movements and the Distribution of Productivity"
    (with L. Fung), Review of International Economics, 2015, Vol. 23, pp. 782-809.
  • "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Plant Turnover and Productivity," International Journal of Industrial Organization, 2014, Vol. 35, pp. 12-28.

Other

Publications

  • "Extreme Weather, Trade and Expenditure" (with Geoffrey Dunbar and Walter Steingress), European Economic Review, revised and resubmit