Ben Tomlin is a Senior Research Director in the International Economic Analysis Department at the Bank of Canada. His primary research interests centre on the analysis of price adjustment, firm dynamics, and international trade in open economies using large micro data sets. Specific topics include exchange rate pass-through, the role of firm relationships in driving aggregate outcomes, and the use of structural models to explore the relationship between international shocks, firm-level adjustment and aggregate productivity. Ben Tomlin received his PhD in economics from Boston University.
We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report.
This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.
Because financial and macroeconomic conditions are tightly interconnected, financial stability considerations are an important element of any monetary policy framework. Yet, the circumstances under which it would be appropriate for the Bank to use monetary policy to lean against financial risks need to be more fully specified (Côté 2014).
Estimating potential output and the output gap - the difference between actual output and its potential - is important for the proper conduct of monetary policy. However, the measurement and interpretation of potential output, and hence the output gap, is fraught with uncertainty, since it is unobservable.
This paper quantifies the impact of hurricanes on seaborne international trade to the United States. Matching the timing of hurricane–trade route intersections with monthly U.S. port-level trade data, we isolate the unanticipated effects of a hurricane hitting a trade route using two separate identification schemes: an event study and a local projection.
Using highly disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows.
In order to understand what drives aggregate fluctuations, many macroeconomic models point to aggregate shocks and discount the contribution of firm-specific shocks. Recent research from other developed countries, however, has found that aggregate fluctuations are in part driven by idiosyncratic shocks to large firms.
This paper investigates the impact of market structure on the joint determination of exchange rate pass-through and currency of invoicing in international trade. A novel feature of the study is the focus on market share of firms on both sides of the market—that is, exporting firms and importing firms.
This paper examines the relationship between house prices and consumption, through the use of debt. Using unique Canadian household-level data that reports the uses of debt, we begin by looking at the relationship between house prices and debt.
This paper studies the sensitivity of Canadian producer prices to the Canada-U.S. exchange rate. Using a unique product-level price data set, we estimate and analyze the impact of movements in the exchange rate on both domestic and export producer prices.
In this paper, we examine how the effect of movements in the real exchange rate on manufacturing plants depends on the plant's placement within the productivity distribution. Appreciations of the local currency expose domestic plants to more competition from abroad as export opportunities shrink and import competition intensifies.
In a small open economy fluctuations in the real exchange rate can affect plant turnover, and thus aggregate productivity, by altering the makeup of plants that populate the market. An appreciation of the local currency increases the level of competition in the domestic market as import competition intensifies and export opportunities shrink, forcing less productive plants from the market and compelling new entrants to be more competitive than they otherwise would have been.
“Importers and Exporters in Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Currency Invoicing” (with Michael Devereux and Wei Dong), Journal of International Economics, 2017, Vol. 105, pp. 187-204.
“House Prices, Consumption and the Role of Non-Mortgage Debt” (with Katya Kartashova), Journal of Banking and Finance, 2017, Vol. 83, pp. 121-134.
"Pricing-to-Market, Currency Invoicing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Producer Prices" (with S. Cao and W. Dong), Journal of International Money and Finance, 2015, Vol. 58, pp. 128-149.
"Exchange Rate Movements and the Distribution of Productivity" (with L. Fung), Review of International Economics, 2015, Vol. 23, pp. 782-809.
"Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Plant Turnover and Productivity," International Journal of Industrial Organization, 2014, Vol. 35, pp. 12-28.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Currency of Invoicing and Market Share" (with Michael Devereux and Wei Dong), NBER Working Paper No. 21413, July 2015 (published in the Journal of International Economics).
"Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products" (with Michael Devereux and Wei Dong), NBER Working Paper No. 26314, September 2019 (R&R Journal of International Economics).