Bio

Marie-Christine Tremblay was appointed Senior Policy Advisor in the International Economic Analysis Department in January 2024. She is responsible for developing analysis on emerging global areas of interest to the Bank. Previously, Ms. Tremblay was a Director in the Financial Stability Department. In this capacity, she helped advance the analysis and research on the macroeconomic and financial system impacts of climate change.

Ms. Tremblay has extensive experience in working on an array of global and economic analytical issues. Previously she held management positions at Finance Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada, and the Treasury Board Secretariat. She served as a Head of Division at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), leading and participating in several analytical initiatives, including through collaborations with international partners such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank. More recently, Ms. Tremblay contributed to the advancement of a Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) Working Group, serving as co-lead role. She currently chairs a G7 Working Group focused on digitalization and is serving as a guest editor for the journal of Energy Economics.

Ms. Tremblay holds a BA in Economics from the University of Ottawa, an MA in Economics from Simon Fraser University, and a PhD in Economics from Laval University.

Research Field(s): Experimental Economics Financial Institutions Game Theory Industrial Organization Microeconomic Theory Resource and Energy Economics

Staff discussion papers

Climate-Related Flood Risk to Residential Lending Portfolios in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-33 Craig Johnston, Geneviève Vallée, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Brett Lindsay, Miguel Molico, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts
We assess the potential financial risks of current and projected flooding caused by extreme weather events in Canada. We focus on the residential real estate secured lending (RESL) portfolios of Canadian financial institutions (FIs) because RESL portfolios are an important component of FIs’ balance sheets and because the assets used to secure such loans are immobile and susceptible to climate-related extreme weather events.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54

Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-32 Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts
Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54

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Staff working papers

An Investigation into the Effects of Border Carbon Adjustments on the Canadian Economy

Staff Working Paper 2023-27 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Sergey Paltsev, Marie-Christine Tremblay
We examine the economic implications of border carbon adjustments (BCAs) for Canada. We find that, BCAs, in the form of import tariffs, reduce Canada’s carbon leakage and improve its competitiveness when Canada is part of a broad coalition of BCA-implementing countries. Welfare also improves when tariff revenues are transferred to households.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, F, F1, H, H2, Q, Q3, Q37, Q5

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Technical reports

Assessing Climate-Related Financial Risk: Guide to Implementation of Methods

Technical Report No. 120 Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Craig Logan, Miguel Molico, Xiangjin Shen, Marie-Christine Tremblay
A pilot project on climate transition scenarios by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions assessed climate-related credit and market risks. This report describes the project’s methodologies and provides guidance on implementing them.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C83, G, G1, G3, G32

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Bank publications

Financial System Hub articles

January 15, 2024

Mapping out the implications of climate transition risk for the financial system

Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts
We develop a new analytical framework to understand the system-wide implications of climate transition risk. When applying this framework to Canadian data, we find that interconnections within the financial sector could amplify the direct effects of climate transition risk on financial entities.
Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54
January 15, 2024

Flood risk and residential lending

Craig Johnston, Geneviève Vallée, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Miguel Molico, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts
We present key findings of a recent study that evaluates the credit risk that flooding poses to the residential lending activities of Canadian banks and credit unions. Results show that such risk currently appears modest but could become larger with climate change.
Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Climate change, Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54

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Journal publications

Other

"Impacts of border carbon adjustments on the Canadian economy" (with Hossein Jebeli, Y.-H. Henry Chen, Craig Johnston and Sergey Paltsev), Energy Economics, Volume 141, January 2025.

"Multiunit Pay‐Your‐Bid Auction with One‐Dimensional Multiunit Demands" (with Bernard Lebrun), International Economic Review, Wiley Online Library, Volume 44, Issue 3, 2003.