Olivier Gervais

Principal Economist

Olivier Gervais is a Principal Economist in the Projection Division of the Canadian Economic Analysis department. His primary interests include economic forecasting, monetary policy, and macroeconomic modeling. Prior to joining CEA in 2011, Olivier worked in the Global Issues Division of the International Economic Analysis department. He holds a Master’s degree in economics from the University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM).

Contact

Olivier Gervais

Principal Economist
Canadian Economic Analysis
Projection

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9

Latest

The Impacts of Minimum Wage Increases on the Canadian Economy

Staff Analytical Note 2017-26 Dany Brouillette, Daniel Gao, Olivier Gervais, Calista Cheung
This note reviews the channels through which scheduled minimum wage increases over the coming years may affect Canadian economic activity and inflation and assesses their macroeconomic impacts. From reduced-form estimates of direct minimum wage pass-through, we find that consumer price index (CPI) inflation could be boosted by about 0.1 percentage point (pp) on average in 2018.

Alternative Scenario to the October 2017 MPR Base-Case Projection: Higher Potential Growth

Staff Analytical Note 2017-18 Jing Yang, Ben Tomlin, Olivier Gervais
We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report.

Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model

Technical Report No. 102 Olivier Gervais, Marc-André Gosselin
The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada.
Content Type(s): Technical Reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17

The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil

Staff Discussion Paper 2011-6 Ron Alquist, Olivier Gervais
Over the past 10 years, financial firms have increased the size of their positions in the oil futures market. At the same time, oil prices have increased dramatically.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, Q, Q4, Q41

External Stability, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies

Staff Discussion Paper 2011-5 Olivier Gervais, Lawrence Schembri, Lena Suchanek
In emerging-market economies, real exchange rate adjustment is critical for maintaining a sustainable current account position and thereby for helping to reduce macroeconomic and financial instability.

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Other

Refereed journals

  • "Current Account Dynamics, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies"
    (with Lawrence Schembri and Lena Suchanek), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 119, March 2016, p. 86-89.

Education

  • M.Sc., Université du Québec à Montréal
  • B.Sc., Université du Québec à Montréal

Research Interests

  • Macroeconomics
  • Forecasting
  • Monetary policy

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