Olivier Gervais is a Principal Economist in the International Projection Division of the International Economic Analysis department. His primary interests include economic forecasting, monetary policy, and macroeconomic modeling. Prior to joining CEA in 2011, Olivier worked in the Global Issues Division of the International Economic Analysis department. He holds a Master’s degree in economics from the University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM).
Staff Analytical Notes
This note reviews the channels through which scheduled minimum wage increases over the coming years may affect Canadian economic activity and inflation and assesses their macroeconomic impacts. From reduced-form estimates of direct minimum wage pass-through, we find that consumer price index (CPI) inflation could be boosted by about 0.1 percentage point (pp) on average in 2018.
We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report.
Staff Discussion Papers
We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature.
Over the past 10 years, financial firms have increased the size of their positions in the oil futures market. At the same time, oil prices have increased dramatically.
In emerging-market economies, real exchange rate adjustment is critical for maintaining a sustainable current account position and thereby for helping to reduce macroeconomic and financial instability.
The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves are typically concentrated in countries with geopolitical uncertainty and/or state-run oil companies.
The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada.
- "Current Account Dynamics, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies"
(with Lawrence Schembri and Lena Suchanek), Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 119, March 2016, p. 86-89.