The Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions completed a climate scenario analysis pilot project with the collaboration of six Canadian financial institutions. The project aimed to increase understanding of the financial sector’s potential exposure to risks in transitioning to a low-carbon economy and to help build the capabilities of authorities and financial institutions in assessing climate-related risks. To support the broader financial-sector community in building these capabilities, this report provides detail on the methodologies the pilot used to assess credit and market risks, which were informed by the financial impacts generated by the climate transition scenarios. The method to assess credit risk combined top-down and bottom-up approaches. Variables from the climate transition scenarios were first translated into sector-level financial impacts. The financial institutions then used these impacts to estimate the implications on credit outcomes through borrower-level assessments. Using the transition scenarios’ financial impacts, and the stressed credit outcomes, the project estimated a relationship between climate transition information and credit risk. This was used to calculate expected credit losses at the portfolio level. The method to assess market risk was solely top-down. Using the scenario analysis, the project used a dividend discount model to estimate sectoral equity revaluations, which it then applied to equity portfolio holdings.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.34989/tr-120