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48 Results

Looking Through Supply Shocks versus Controlling Inflation Expectations: Understanding the Central Bank Dilemma

Staff Working Paper 2022-41 Paul Beaudry, Thomas J. Carter, Amartya Lahiri
Why might central banks want to look through supply-driven inflation sometimes and pivot away at other times? When does a change in monetary policy stance help anchor expectations? In this paper we present a simple environment that helps clarify these issues by offering an optimal policy perspective on recent central bank behaviour.

Quantum Monte Carlo for Economics: Stress Testing and Macroeconomic Deep Learning

Using the quantum Monte Carlo algorithm, we study whether quantum computing can improve the run time of economic applications and challenges in doing so. We apply the algorithm to two models: a stress testing bank model and a DSGE model solved with deep learning. We also present innovations in the algorithm and benchmark it to classical Monte Carlo.

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022

We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment.

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.

Can regulating bank capital help prevent and mitigate financial downturns?

Staff Analytical Note 2021-12 Alejandro García, Josef Schroth
Countercyclical capital buffers are regulatory measures developed in response to the global financial crisis of 2008–09. This note focuses on how time-varying capital buffers can improve financial stability in Canada

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021

We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.

A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation

Staff Working Paper 2020-50 Antonio Diez de los Rios
We study the interaction between epidemics and economic decisions in a model that has silent transmission of the virus. We find that rational behaviour strongly diminishes the severity of the epidemic but worsens the economic recession. We also find that the detection and isolation of not only symptomatic individuals but also those who are infected and asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic can reduce the severity of the recession caused by the pandemic.

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: October 2020

This paper presents updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2022. Global potential output growth is expected to decline sharply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and recover partially by the end of the projection horizon of the October 2020 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

Identifying Aggregate Shocks with Micro-level Heterogeneity: Financial Shocks and Investment Fluctuation

Staff Working Paper 2020-17 Xing Guo
This paper identifies aggregate financial shocks and quantifies their effects on business investment based on an estimated DSGE model with firm-level heterogeneity. On average, financial shocks contribute only 3% of the variation in U.S. public firms’ aggregate investment.

The Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian Perspective

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-1 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes
We analyze money financing of fiscal transfers (helicopter money) in two simple New Keynesian models: a “textbook” model in which all money is non-interest-bearing (e.g., all money is currency), and a more realistic model with interest-bearing reserves.
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