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36 Results

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates.

Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration

Staff Working Paper 2018-15 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier
There are indications that business dynamism has declined in advanced economies. In particular, firm entry and exit rates have fallen, suggesting that the creative destruction process has lost some of its vitality. Meanwhile, productivity growth has slowed. Some believe that lower entry and exit rates partly explain the weaker productivity growth.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, M, M1, M13, O, O4, O47

Capital-Goods Imports and US Growth

Staff Working Paper 2018-1 Michele Cavallo, Anthony Landry
Capital-goods imports have become an increasing source of growth for the U.S. economy. To understand this phenomenon, we build a neoclassical growth model with international trade in capital goods in which agents face exogenous paths of total factor and investment-specific productivity measures.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E2, F, F2, F4, O, O3, O4
November 16, 2017

An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest

The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.

Assessing Global Potential Output Growth

This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.
November 17, 2016

Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Emerging-Market Economies

Growth has slowed in many emerging-market economies (EMEs) since the 2007–09 global financial crisis, reflecting both cyclical and structural factors. In this context, it will be in-creasingly important for EMEs to raise potential growth by maintaining steady progress on structural reforms. How do structural reforms generally support growth? What are the re-form priorities for EMEs over recent history and today? Finally, what will be the impact of planned structural reforms on potential output growth among the world’s larger EMEs? These are some of the questions considered by the authors.

How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030

Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years.
November 19, 2015

Is Slower Growth the New Normal in Advanced Economies?

This article reviews and examines some of the main explanations for the slow growth that many advanced economies continue to experience seven years after the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Does this muted recovery reflect just a prolonged cycle in the aftermath of a financial crisis? Is it due to a structural inadequacy of demand leading to a long-lasting liquidity trap? Or is it largely supply side in nature, reflecting demographic and technological factors?

A New Data Set of Quarterly Total Factor Productivity in the Canadian Business Sector

Staff Working Paper 2015-6 Shutao Cao, Sharon Kozicki
In this paper, a quarterly growth-accounting data set is built for the Canadian business sector with the top-down approach of Diewert and Yu (2012). Inputs and outputs are measured and used to estimate the quarterly total factor productivity (TFP).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, F, F4, F43, O, O4, O47
November 13, 2014

Firm Strategy, Competitiveness and Productivity: The Case for Canada

At a time when the Bank is expecting a rotation of demand toward exports and investment, and transformative global trends are placing increasing emphasis on innovation, technology and organizational learning, an understanding of the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms and the factors affecting them has become particularly relevant. This article summarizes findings from a Bank of Canada survey of 151 firms designed to extract signals on elements of firm strategy and organizational capital in order to help inform the macroeconomic outlook.
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