Pierre St-Amant

Senior Policy Advisor


Senior Policy Advisor
Canadian Economic Analysis
Strategic Leadership and Support

Bank of Canada
234 Wellington Street
Ottawa, ON, K1A 0G9


The Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada: Searching for the Unobservable

In this paper, we assess several methods that have been used to measure the Canadian trend unemployment rate (TUR). We also consider improvements and extensions to some existing methods.

The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon?

Staff Working Paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant
We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47

Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration

Staff Working Paper 2018-15 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier
There are indications that business dynamism has declined in advanced economies. In particular, firm entry and exit rates have fallen, suggesting that the creative destruction process has lost some of its vitality. Meanwhile, productivity growth has slowed. Some believe that lower entry and exit rates partly explain the weaker productivity growth.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, M, M1, M13, O, O4, O47

Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation

We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables).

April 2016 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output in Canada

This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016–18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019–20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report.

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Other Bank Publications

Refereed Journals

  • “Dismiss the Output Gaps? To Use with Caution Given their Limitations”
    (with Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille and Mohanad Salameh) Economic Modelling, Vol. 76(C), pages 199-215, January 2019.
  • “The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: an ICT Phenomenon?”
    (with Jeff Mollins) International Productivity Monitor, Vol. 35, pages 95-112, Fall 2018.
  • "Trends in Firm Entry and New Entrepreneurship in Canada"
    (with Shutao Cao, Mohanad Salameh and Mai Seki) Canadian Public Policy, Vol. 43, No. 3, pp. 202-220, September 2017.
  • "A Comparison of Twelve Macroeconomic Models of the Canadian Economy."
    (with Denise Côté, Jean Paul Lam, John Kuszczak, and Ying Liu) Journal of Policy Modeling 28 (5) July 2006.
  • "The Performance and Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in Models of the Canadian Economy"
    (with Denise Côté, Jean Paul Lam, John Kuszczak, and Ying Liu) Canadian Journal of Economics 37 (4) November 2004.
  • "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?"
    (with A. Guay). Annales d'Économie et de Statistique (77) January-March 2005.
  • "Revisiting the case for flexible exchange rates in North America,"
    (with John Murray and Lawrence Schembri). North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 14 (2), August 2003, p.207-240.
  • "Zones monétaires optimales : Revue de la littérature récente,"
    (with Robert Lafrance) L'Actualité Économique. Décember 2000.
  • "Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à limpact des cibles dinflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire."
    (with David Tessier). Canadian Public Policy. Summer 2000.
  • "A Comparison of Alternative Methodologies for Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap."
    (with Chantal Dupasquier and Alain Guay). Journal of Macroeconomics, 21, 1999.

Other Publications

  • "Déflation et Politique Monétaire"
    (with David Tessier). L’Actualité économiques, September 2008.
  • "Optimum Currency Areas as Applied to Canada and the United States."
    (with C. Dupasquier and R. Lalonde). Money Affairs, 11 (1). Also published in Monetaria. 1998.
  • "Measurement of the Output Gaps: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada."
    (with Simon van Norden). BIS Conference Papers 4, 1997.
  • "Optimal Currency Areas: The Case of Mexico and the United States."
    (with René Lalonde). Money Affairs, 8 (2). Also published in Monetaria. 1995.

Other Research

  • Workshop papers on Taylor Rules held 25 October 2001 at the Bank of Canada (preliminary versions available).



  • Masters in Economics, Laval University, Quebec
  • Graduate Degree in Economics, Laval University, Quebec
  • B.A. in Political Science, Laval University, Quebec
  • Postgraduate diploma in Public Administration, National School of Public Administration, Montréal

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