The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present and Future Staff Discussion Paper 2024-3 Matteo Cacciatore, Bruno Feunou, Galip Kemal Ozhan The decline in safe real interest rates over the past three decades has reignited discussions on the neutral real interest rate, known as R*. We address the determinants and estimation methods of R*, as well as the factors influencing its decline and its future trajectory. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E6, E62
U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields Staff Working Paper 2024-12 Bingxin Ann Xing, Bruno Feunou, Morvan Nongni-Donfack, Rodrigo Sekkel Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G14
Pricing behaviour and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata Staff Analytical Note 2024-6 Olga Bilyk, Mikael Khan, Olena Kostyshyna Using the microdata underlying the Canadian consumer price index, we study how often and by how much firms changed their prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the surge in inflation was mainly associated with retailers raising prices much more often than before. We also find that more recently, corporate price-setting behaviour appears to be approaching pre-pandemic norms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11
Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach Staff Working Paper 2024-10 Antoine Poulin-Moore, Kerem Tuzcuoglu We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. The results highlight the short-term predictive power of the US economic activity and suggest that financial indicators are reliable predictors of Canadian recessions. In addition, the suggested model meaningfully improves the ability to forecast Canadian recessions, relative to a variety of probit models proposed in the Canadian literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C53, E, E3, E32
COVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey Staff Discussion Paper 2024-2 Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera, Liang Wang, Joy Wu The Bank of Canada’s Merchant Acceptance Survey finds that 96% of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada accepted cash in 2023. Acceptance of debit and credit cards has increased to 89%, and acceptance of digital payments has also increased. However, Canada is far from being a cashless society. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2
CBDC: Banking and Anonymity Staff Working Paper 2024-9 Yuteng Cheng, Ryuichiro Izumi We examine the optimal amount of user anonymity in a central bank digital currency in the context of bank lending. Anonymity, defined as the lender’s inability to discern an entrepreneur’s actions that enable fund diversion, influences the choice of payment instrument due to its impact on a bank’s lending decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G28
Monetary Policy Transmission Through Shadow and Traditional Banks Staff Working Paper 2024-8 Amina Enkhbold I investigate how monetary policy transmits to mortgage rates via the mortgage market concentration channel for both traditional and shadow banks in the United States from 2009 to 2019. On average, shadow and traditional banks exhibit only a slight disparity in transmitting monetary shocks to mortgage rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21
What has been putting upward pressure on CORRA? Staff Analytical Note 2024-4 Boran Plong, Neil Maru From the autumn of 2023 into early 2024, the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA), a measure of the cost of overnight general collateral Canadian dollar repos, was consistently well above the Bank’s target for the overnight rate. We find that, among several factors, long bond positions that require repo financing are the main driver of the recent upward pressure on CORRA. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Lender of last resort, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): D, D4, D5, D53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52, G, G1, G12
How changes in the share of constrained households affect the effectiveness of monetary policy Staff Analytical Note 2024-3 Felipe Alves, Sushant Acharya We measure how the change in the share of constrained households in Canada following the COVID-19 recession has impacted the effectiveness of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E40, E5, E50
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2024-5 Tao Wang The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E71