Financial Distress and Hedging: Evidence from Canadian Oil Firms Staff Discussion Paper 2019-4 Kun Mo, Farrukh Suvankulov, Sophie Griffiths The paper explores the link between financial distress and the commodity price hedging behaviour of Canadian oil firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32, Q, Q4, Q40
November 13, 2014 Firm Strategy, Competitiveness and Productivity: The Case for Canada Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Lori Rennison, Farid Novin, Matthieu Verstraete At a time when the Bank is expecting a rotation of demand toward exports and investment, and transformative global trends are placing increasing emphasis on innovation, technology and organizational learning, an understanding of the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms and the factors affecting them has become particularly relevant. This article summarizes findings from a Bank of Canada survey of 151 firms designed to extract signals on elements of firm strategy and organizational capital in order to help inform the macroeconomic outlook. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, D24, E, E2, E22, F, F2, F20, L, L1, L10, L2, L20, M, M1, M10, O, O3, O31, O4, O47
Potential Output in Canada: 2018 Reassessment Staff Analytical Note 2018-10 Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Bassirou Gueye, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Jeffrey Mollins, Youngmin Park This note summarizes the reassessment of potential output, conducted by the Bank of Canada for the April 2018 Monetary Policy Report. Overall, the profile for potential output growth is expected to remain flat at 1.8 per cent between 2018 and 2020 and 1.9 per cent in 2021. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6
Canada and the IMF: Trailblazer or Prodigal Son? Staff Discussion Paper 2009-1 Michael Bordo, Lawrence L. Schembri, Tamara Gomes Canada played an important role in the postwar establishment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), yet it was also the first major member to challenge the orthodoxy of the BrettonWoods par value system by abandoning it in 1950 in favour of a floating, market-determined exchange rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F4, F41, F5, F55, N, N7, N72
November 16, 2000 Credit Derivatives Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2000 John Kiff, Ron Morrow Credit derivatives are a useful tool for lenders who want to reduce their exposure to a particular borrower but are unwilling to sell their claims on that borrower. Without actually transferring ownership of the underlying assets, these contracts transfer risk from one counterparty to another. Commercial banks are the major participants in this growing market, using these transactions to diversify their portfolios of loans and other risky assets. The authors examine the size and workings of this relatively new market and discuss the potential of these transactions for distorting existing incentives for risk management and risk monitoring. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment Staff Analytical Note 2023-6 Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Kemal Ozhan, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5
Liquidity Usage and Payment Delay Estimates of the New Canadian High Value Payments System Staff Discussion Paper 2020-9 Francisco Rivadeneyra, Nellie Zhang As part of modernizing its core payments infrastructure, Canada will replace the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) with a new Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system called Lynx. An important question for policy-makers is how Lynx should be designed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, E, E4, E42, E5, E58
Characterizing Canada’s Export Sector by Industry: A Supply-Side Perspective Staff Analytical Note 2018-27 Taylor Webley This note examines supply-side trends in Canadian non-energy industries and their implications for export performance. Between 2002 and 2016, capital stocks and total labour input declined in many industries that export non-energy goods. These soft trends in the factors of production have likely contributed to the decline in non-energy exports in about half of the goods industries analyzed in this note. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E24, F, F1, F19
How Long is Forever in the Laboratory? Three Implementations of an Infinite-Horizon Monetary Economy Staff Working Paper 2021-16 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang Standard monetary models adopt an infinite horizon with discounting. Testing these models in the lab requires implementing this horizon within a limited time frame. We compare three approaches to such an implementation and discuss their relative advantages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40
A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market Staff Analytical Note 2019-17 Reinhard Ellwanger This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43