Taylor Webley is a Principal Economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis (CEA) Department. His current responsibilities include monitoring Canada’s production accounts and contributing to the development of new nowcasting tools.
Taylor joined the Bank in 2013 as an Economist in International’s United States Division and moved to CEA in 2016. Previous responsibilities include contributing to the short- and long-term forecasts for the United States and forecasting Canada’s trade flows and housing market activity. Taylor completed his Master of Arts, Economics, at Queen’s University.
We use a recently developed model and loan-level micro data to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period.
Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility.
This note examines supply-side trends in Canadian non-energy industries and their implications for export performance. Between 2002 and 2016, capital stocks and total labour input declined in many industries that export non-energy goods. These soft trends in the factors of production have likely contributed to the decline in non-energy exports in about half of the goods industries analyzed in this note.