Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
220
result(s)
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019
Staff Analytical Note 2019-13
Fares Bounajm,
Jean-Philippe Cayen,
Michael Francis,
Christopher Hajzler,
Kristina Hess,
Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle,
Peter Selcuk
This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E10,
E2,
E20,
O,
O4
Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales
Staff Analytical Note 2019-12
Mikael Khan,
Taylor Webley
We use a recently developed model and loan-level microdata to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Housing,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
E,
E2,
R,
R2,
R21
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update
Staff Analytical Note 2019-11
Thomas J. Carter,
Xin Scott Chen,
José Dorich
This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E40,
E43,
E5,
E50,
E52,
E58,
F,
F4,
F41
Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment
Staff Analytical Note 2019-10
Dany Brouillette,
Julien Champagne,
Carol Khoury,
Natalia Kyui,
Jeffrey Mollins,
Youngmin Park
Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E0,
E00,
E2,
E22,
E23,
E24,
E3,
E37,
E6
Could Canadian Bond Funds Add Stress to the Financial System?
Staff Analytical Note 2019-9
Rohan Arora,
Guillaume Bédard-Pagé,
Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc,
Ryan Shotlander
We create a hypothetical scenario to study the role bond funds play in intensifying shocks to the financial system. Using data from 2018 and 2007, we find that bond funds play a larger role now than they did in the past.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G2,
G20,
G23
Non-Resident Taxes and the Role of House Price Expectations
Staff Analytical Note 2019-8
Mikael Khan,
Matthieu Verstraete
In recent years, the governments of Ontario and British Columbia have imposed taxes on purchases by non-Canadian residents of residential properties in certain jurisdictions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial stability,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D84,
R,
R2,
R21
Liquidity Management of Canadian Corporate Bond Mutual Funds: A Machine Learning Approach
Staff Analytical Note 2019-7
Rohan Arora,
Chen Fan,
Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc
When redeeming shares for investors, bond fund managers must choose a mix of cash and bond sales to honour their commitments. This note uses machine learning algorithms to uncover new patterns in decisions fund managers make to meet redemptions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G2,
G20,
G23
The Size and Characteristics of Informal (“Gig”) Work in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2019-6
Olena Kostyshyna,
Corinne Luu
Underlying wage growth has fallen short of what would be consistent with an economy operating with little or no slack. While many factors could explain this weakness, the availability of additional labour resources from informal (“gig”) work—not fully captured in standard measures of employment and hours worked—may play a role.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
E26,
J,
J2,
J20,
J3,
J30,
J4
Canada’s Monetary Policy Report: If Text Could Speak, What Would It Say?
Staff Analytical Note 2019-5
André Binette,
Dmitri Tchebotarev
This note analyzes the evolution of the narrative in the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). It presents descriptive statistics on the core text, including length, most frequently used words and readability level—the three Ls. Although each Governor of the Bank of Canada focuses on the macroeconomic events of the day and the mandate of inflation targeting, we observe that the language used in the MPR varies somewhat from one Governor’s tenure to the next.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E0,
E02,
E5,
E52