Thomas J. Carter - Latest - Bank of Canada
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Bank of Canada RSS Feedsen2024-03-29T10:45:48+00:00The Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/09/staff-working-paper-2022-41/
When countries are hit by supply shocks, central banks often face the dilemma of either looking through such shocks or reacting to them to ensure that inflation expectations remain anchored. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework to capture this dilemma and then explore optimal policy under a range of assumptions about how expectations are formed.2022-09-20T15:30:42+00:00enThe Central Bank’s Dilemma: Look Through Supply Shocks or Control Inflation Expectations?2022-09-20Central bank researchEconomic modelsInflation and pricesMonetary policyMonetary policy and uncertaintyMonetary policy communicationsStaff Working Paper 2022-41https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/swp2022-41.pdfStaff Working Paper 2022-41Paul BeaudryThomas J. CarterAmartya LahiriSeptember 2022EE1E12E2E24E3E31E5E52E58E6E65Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/04/staff-analytical-note-2022-4/
We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment.2022-04-13T14:09:59+00:00enAssessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 20222022-04-13Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/04/staff-analytical-note-2021-5/
We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.2021-04-21T10:00:15+00:00enAssessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 20212021-04-212020 US Neutral Rate Assessment
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/staff-discussion-paper-2020-12/
This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.2020-12-01T13:47:11+00:00en2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment2020-12-01Economic modelsInterest ratesMonetary policyStaff Discussion Paper 2020-12https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/sdp2020-12.pdf2020 US Neutral Rate AssessmentJames BootsmaThomas J. CarterXin Scott ChenChristopher HajzlerArgyn ToktamyssovDecember 2020EE4E40E43E5E50E52E58FF4F41Strengthening Inflation Targeting: Review and Renewal Processes in Canada and Other Advanced Jurisdictions
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/08/staff-discussion-paper-2020-7/
We summarize the review and renewal process at four central banks (Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of England, Sveriges Riksbank and the US Federal Reserve Bank) and compare them with the process at the Bank of Canada, which has been well-established since 2001.2020-08-06T14:45:02+00:00enStrengthening Inflation Targeting: Review and Renewal Processes in Canada and Other Advanced Jurisdictions2020-08-06Central bank researchInflation targetsMonetary policy frameworkStaff Discussion Paper 2020-7https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/sdp2020-7.pdfStaff Discussion Paper 2020-7Robert AmanoThomas J. CarterLawrence L. SchembriAugust 2020EE5E52E58The Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian Perspective
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/02/staff-discussion-paper-2020-1/
We analyze money financing of fiscal transfers (helicopter money) in two simple New Keynesian models: a “textbook” model in which all money is non-interest-bearing (e.g., all money is currency), and a more realistic model with interest-bearing reserves.2020-02-07T16:29:53+00:00enThe Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian Perspective2020-02-07CredibilityEconomic modelsFiscal policyInflation targetsInterest ratesMonetary policyMonetary policy and uncertaintyMonetary policy frameworkMonetary policy transmissionStaff Discussion Paper 2020-1https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/sdp2020-1.pdfThe Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian PerspectiveThomas J. CarterRhys R. MendesFebruary 2020EE1E12E4E41E43E5E51E52E58E6E61E63The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/04/staff-analytical-note-2019-11/
This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting.2019-04-17T11:12:06+00:00enThe Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update2019-04-17Credibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/staff-discussion-paper-2018-18/
In 1991, Canada became the second country to adopt an inflation target as a central pillar of its monetary policy framework. The regime has proven much more successful than initially expected, both in achieving price stability and in stabilizing the real economy against a wide range of shocks.2018-12-18T14:08:33+00:00enCredibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in Canada2018-12-18CredibilityInflation targetsMonetary policyMonetary policy frameworkStaff Discussion Paper 2018-18https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/sdp2018-18.pdfCredibility, Flexibility and Renewal: The Evolution of Inflation Targeting in CanadaThomas J. CarterRhys R. MendesLawrence L. SchembriDecember 2018EE5E52E58E6E61Optimal Interbank Regulation
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/11/staff-working-paper-2017-48/
Recent years have seen renewed interest in the regulation of interbank markets. A review of the literature in this area identifies two gaps: first, the literature has tended to make ad hoc assumptions about the interbank contract space, which makes it difficult to generate convincing policy prescriptions; second, the literature has tended to focus on ex-post interventions that kick in only after an interbank disruption has come underway (e.g., open-market operations, lender-of-last-resort interventions, bail-outs), rather than ex-ante prudential policies.2017-11-20T10:18:40+00:00enOptimal Interbank Regulation2017-11-20Financial stabilityFinancial system regulation and policiesStaff Working Paper 2017-48https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/swp2017-48.pdfOptimal Interbank RegulationThomas J. CarterNovember 2017GG0G01G2G20Redistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/10/staff-analytical-note-2017-13/
In light of the financial crisis and its aftermath, several economists have argued that inflation-targeting central banks should reconsider the level of their inflation targets. While the appropriate level for the inflation target remains an open question, it’s important to note that any transition to a new target would entail certain costs.2017-10-06T10:57:27+00:00enRedistributive Effects of a Change in the Inflation Target2017-10-06