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June 24, 2020

Bank of Canada contributes to new publications by the Network for Greening the Financial System

As a member of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), the Bank of Canada contributed to three publications that aim to improve global understanding of the impact of climate change on the financial system and world economy.

Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-3 Erik Ens, Craig Johnston
This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy.

Optimal Taxation in Asset Markets with Adverse Selection

Staff Working Paper 2020-11 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini
What is the optimal tax schedule in over-the-counter markets, e.g., those for corporate bonds? I find that an optimal tax schedule is often non-monotonic. For example, trading of some high-price assets should be subsidized, and trading of some low-price assets should be taxed.

IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity

We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.

The Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian Perspective

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-1 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes
We analyze money financing of fiscal transfers (helicopter money) in two simple New Keynesian models: a “textbook” model in which all money is non-interest-bearing (e.g., all money is currency), and a more realistic model with interest-bearing reserves.

Managing GDP Tail Risk

Staff Working Paper 2020-3 Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Models for macroeconomic forecasts do not usually take into account the risk of a crisis—that is, a sudden large decline in gross domestic product (GDP). However, policy-makers worry about such GDP tail risk because of its large social and economic costs.

Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound

This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available.

Technology Adoption in Input-Output Networks

Staff Working Paper 2019-51 Xintong Han, Lei Xu
We study how input-output networks affect the speed of technology adoption. In particular, we model the decision to adopt the programming language Python 3 by software packages. Python 3 provides advanced features but is not backward compatible with Python 2, which implies it comes with adoption costs.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, L, L2, L23, L8, L86, O, O1, O14, O3, O33
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