Estimating the impacts on GDP of natural disasters in Canada Staff analytical note 2025-5 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Thibaut Duprey, Craig Johnston Extreme weather events contribute to increased volatility in both economic activity and prices, interfering with the assessment of the true underlying trends of the economy. With this in mind, we conduct a timely assessment of the impact of natural disasters on Canadian gross domestic product (GDP). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): B, B2, B23, C, C1, C13, C2, C23, E, E1, E17, E3, E37, E6, E62, H, H6 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change
Monetary Policy Implementation and Payment System Modernization Staff working paper 2020-26 Jonathan Witmer Canada plans to adopt a retail payment system to allow Canadians to pay in real time (or near real time) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. However, the traditional model for setting the overnight interest rate does not operate 24/7. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
More Than Words: Fed Chairs’ Communication During Congressional Testimonies Staff working paper 2022-20 Michelle Alexopoulos, Xinfen Han, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Xu Zhang We measure soft information contained in the congressional testimonies of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairs and analyze its effect on financial markets. Increases in the Chair’s text-, voice-, or face-emotion indices during these testimonies generally raise stock prices and lower their volatility. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, E7, E71 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
February 9, 2022 The role of Canadian business in fostering non-inflationary growth Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Canadian Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how business investment and stronger productivity are vital to sustaining non-inflationary economic growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I Staff analytical note 2016-15 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Guillaume Nolin In this analytical note we show that the share of the systematic variations in the Canadian dollar has risen significantly in the past two decades. Systematic variations in the exchange rate are shared with other currencies. This parallels the equity market, where variations in the price of a given stock are shared with variations in the prices of other stocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
January 10, 2013 Regearing Our Economic Growth Remarks Tiff Macklem Queen’s University - W. Edmund Clark Distinguished Lecture Kingston, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem discusses regearing the Canadian economy for sustained growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Amazon Effects in Canadian Online Retail Firm-Product-Level Data Staff working paper 2019-42 Alex Chernoff I use firm-product-level data for Canadian online retailers to study how product scope (the average number of product categories per firm) evolved from 1999 to 2012. During this period, product scope dropped monotonically from 59 to 5 product categories. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L1, L11, L8, L81 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update Staff analytical note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Policy Rules for Capital Controls Staff working paper 2017-42 Gurnain Pasricha This paper attempts to borrow the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions in monetary policy literature and apply it to capital controls policy literature. Using a novel weekly dataset on capital controls policy actions in 21 emerging economies over the period 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2015, I examine the mercantilist and macroprudential motivations for capital control policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4, F5, G, G0, G1 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
CBDC: Banking and Anonymity Staff working paper 2024-9 Yuteng Cheng, Ryuichiro Izumi We examine the optimal amount of user anonymity in a central bank digital currency in the context of bank lending. Anonymity, defined as the lender’s inability to discern an entrepreneur’s actions that enable fund diversion, influences the choice of payment instrument due to its impact on a bank’s lending decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments