Miroslav Misina

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Staff Working Papers

Non-Linearities, Model Uncertainty, and Macro Stress Testing

Staff Working Paper 2008-30 Miroslav Misina, David Tessier
A distinguishing feature of macro stress testing exercises is the use of macroeconomic models in scenario design and implementation. It is widely agreed that scenarios should be based on "rare but plausible" events that have either resulted in vulnerabilities in the past or could do so in the future.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G2, G21, G3, G33

What Does the Risk-Appetite Index Measure?

Staff Working Paper 2003-23 Miroslav Misina
Explanations of changes in asset prices as being due to exogenous changes in risk appetite, although arguably controversial, have been popular in the financial community and have also received some attention in attempts to account for recent financial crises. Operational versions of these explanations are based on the assumption that changes in asset prices can be decomposed into a part that can be attributed to changes in riskiness and a part attributable to changes in risk aversion, and that some quantitative measure can capture these effects in isolation.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

Are Distorted Beliefs Too Good to be True?

Staff Working Paper 2003-4 Miroslav Misina
In a recent attempt to account for the equity-premium puzzle within a representative-agent model, Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark (2000) relax the assumption of rational expectations and in its place use the assumption of distorted beliefs. The author shows that the explanatory power of the distorted beliefs model is due to an inconsistency in the model and that an attempt to remove this inconsistency removes the model's explanatory power.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, G, G1, G12

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