Marcel Kasumovich


Staff working papers

Monetary Shocks in the G-6 Countries: Is There a Puzzle?

Staff Working Paper 1997-7 Ben Fung, Marcel Kasumovich
This paper attempts to reduce the uncertainty about the dynamics of the monetary transmission mechanism. Central to this attempt is the identification of monetary policy shocks. Recently, VAR approaches that use over-identifying restrictions have shown success in isolating such shocks.

Does Inflation Uncertainty Vary with the Level of Inflation?

Staff Working Paper 1996-9 Allan Crawford, Marcel Kasumovich
The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that inflation uncertainty increases at higher levels of inflation. Our analysis is based on the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) class of models, which allow the conditional variance of the error term to be time-varying. Since this variance is a proxy for inflation uncertainty, a positive relationship between the conditional variance and inflation would be interpreted as evidence that inflation uncertainty increases with the level of inflation.

Interpreting Money-Supply and Interest-Rate Shocks as Monetary-Policy Shocks

Staff Working Paper 1996-8 Marcel Kasumovich
In this paper two shocks are analysed using Canadian data: a money-supply shock ("M-shock") and an interest-rate shock ("R-shock"). Money-supply shocks are derived using long-run restrictions based on long-run propositions of monetary theory. Thus, an M-shock is represented by an orthogonalized innovation in the trend shared by money and prices.

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