Low Inflation in Advanced Economies: Facts and Drivers Staff analytical note 2017-16 Sanjana Bhatnagar, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit, Elise Martin, Vikram Rai, Renaud St-Cyr, Subrata Sarker, Kristina Hess Since the global financial crisis, core inflation has been persistently below target in most advanced economies. Recently, it has weakened further in several advanced economies despite gradually diminishing slack. This note reviews recent developments in core inflation across advanced economies and identifies distinctive patterns across regions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E0, E3, E31, F, F0 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
From Stress to Strategy: How Banks Balance the Scales Staff working paper 2026-26 Ruben Hipp, Javier Ojea Ferreiro This paper develops a stress-testing framework in which banks strategically adjust their balance sheets in response to regulatory constraints and market conditions. Applied to Canada’s largest banks, it quantifies the effects of macroprudential policies on lending and identifies systemic vulnerabilities through reverse stress testing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, C7, C73, G, G2, G21, G3, G32, H, H1, H12 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff analytical note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
The Consumer Value Proposition for a Hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar Staff discussion paper 2024-16 Martine Warren, Bill Laur, Ted Garanzotis, Sebastian Hernandez We explore the consumer value proposition of a hypothetical Digital Canadian Dollar, adoption considerations and the users who would benefit most from this potential new payment method. We employ a design-thinking consultation methodology, allowing participants to interact with research prototypes of increasing complexity to reveal user preferences, constraints and adoption influences. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C9, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, E5, E58, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence Staff working paper 2022-11 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev Central banks in many advanced economies enjoy a high degree of independence, which protects monetary policy decisions from political influence. But how should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policy-makers? We examine whether a central bank should design a monetary policy framework that prescribes acting conditionally on how fiscal policy behaves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E62 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
March 21, 2017 Getting Down to Business: Investment and the Economic Outlook Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Greater Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the factors affecting business investment and the implications for the economic outlook. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Funds management, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Adoption Costs of Financial Innovation: Evidence from Italian ATM Cards Staff working paper 2017-8 Kim Huynh, Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, Gregor W. Smith, Angelika Welte The discrete choice to adopt a financial innovation affects a household’s exposure to inflation and transactions costs. We model this adoption decision as being subject to an unobserved cost. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, D, D1, D14, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech
A New Approach to Estimating Portfolio-Balance Models of the Yield Curve Staff working paper 2026-33 Antonio Diez de los Rios Portfolio-balance models of the yield curve are notoriously hard to estimate. This paper offers a simple, two-step estimation approach that can be implemented with standard term structure estimation methods. In our application to U.S. Treasury data, our method recovers economically interpretable drivers of the yield curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G1, G12, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
From LVTS to Lynx: Quantitative Assessment of Payment System Transition Staff working paper 2023-24 Ajit Desai, Zhentong Lu, Hiru Rodrigo, Jacob Sharples, Phoebe Tian, Nellie Zhang We quantitatively assess the changes in participants’ payment behaviour from modernizing Canada's high-value payments system to Lynx. Our analysis suggests that Lynx's liquidity-saving mechanism encourages liquidity pooling and early payments submission, resulting in improved efficiency for participants but with slightly increased payment delays. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C10, E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Monetary Policy and the Persistent Aggregate Effects of Wealth Redistribution Staff working paper 2021-38 Martin Kuncl, Alexander Ueberfeldt Monetary policy in the presence of nominal debt and labour supply heterogeneity creates a policy trade-off: a short-term economic stimulus leads to persistently reduced output over the medium term. Price-level targeting weakens this trade-off and is better able to stabilize inflation and output than inflation targeting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E5, E50 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting