Karyne B. Charbonneau is a Policy Advisor the Canadian Economic Analysis Department at the Bank of Canada. In this capacity, she is part of the leadership team overseeing the Bank's analysis of the Canadian economy and its research on monetary policy. Her research focuses on applied econometrics and international trade.
Prior to occupying this role, she was a Principal Economist in the Real Economic Activity Division and then in the Digital Economy and Advanced Analytics Division.
She received her PhD in economics from Princeton University.
This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger.
Labour markets in Canada and around the world are evolving rapidly with the digital economy. Traditional data are adapting gradually but are not yet able to provide timely information on this evolution.
We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to construct a quantitative Ricardian framework similar to Caliendo and Parro (2015) to isolate and estimate the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes.
This paper compiles the contemporary view on three major Canadian-led trade policies that have marked Canada’s economic history since Confederation: the National Policy (1879), the Canada–US Agreement on Automotive Products (Auto Pact, 1965) and the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA, 1989, including its extension to the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, 1994).