April 30, 2012 Transport and Logistics - Connecting Canada to the Global Economy Remarks Timothy Lane Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport North America Ottawa, Ontario Deputy Governor Tim Lane discusses the global economic outlook and the integral – and historic – role of transport and logistics in building Canada’s prosperity. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
December 23, 2004 Basel II and Required Bank Capital Financial System Review - December 2004 Mark Illing, Graydon Paulin Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections Staff Discussion Paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, E, E3, E37, Q, Q4, Q43
June 21, 2006 Using the Contingent Claims Approach to Assess Credit Risk in the Canadian Business Sector Financial System Review - June 2006 Michal Kozak, Meyer Aaron, Céline Gauthier Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
January 9, 2019 Monetary Policy Report – January 2019 The Bank projects that Canadian economic growth will slow to 1.7 per cent this year before rebounding to 2.1 per cent in 2020. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Sectoral Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2022-38 Efrem Castelnuovo, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Luis Uzeda We propose a new empirical framework that jointly decomposes the conditional variance of economic time series into a common and a sector-specific uncertainty component. We apply our framework to a disaggregated industrial production series for the US economy. We identify unexpected changes in durable goods uncertainty as drivers of downturns, while unexpected hikes in non-durable goods uncertainty are expansionary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C55, E, E3, E32, E4, E44
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
Government Debt and Deficits In Canada: A Macro Simulation Analysis Staff Working Paper 1995-4 Tiff Macklem, David Rose, Robert Tetlow This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of rising government debt in Canada and the short-run costs and long-run benefits of stemming the rise. The discussion begins with an evaluation of the long-run consequences of increasing government indebtedness, first based on the simple arithmetic of the government's long-run budget constraint, and then based on simulations of […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy
December 21, 2002 Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2002-2003 Jeannine Bailliu, John Murray A series of major international financial crises in the 1990s, and the recent introduction of the euro, have renewed interest in alternative exchange rate systems. The choice of exchange rate regime is particularly relevant for emerging-market countries because other countries are perceived either as having no alternative to their current exchange rate arrangement or as highly unlikely to change. This article examines the evolution of exchange rate regimes in emerging markets over the past decade and compares the strengths and weaknesses of the various available systems. These include intermediate regimes, such as the adjustable pegged exchange rate popular throughout much of the post—war period, and the two extreme exchange rate regimes: permanently fixed or freely floating exchange rate regimes. Two recently proposed alternatives are also evaluated: the Managed Floating Plus and Baskets, Bands, and Crawling Pegs. Both try to combine the best elements of the flexible and fixed exchange rate systems, but the Managed Floating Plus is deemed to be the more promising alternative. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rate regimes
May 14, 2015 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 In this issue, Bank researchers discuss inflation dynamics and global trade following the 2007–09 financial crisis. Other articles explore changes to the governance and regulation of the Canadian payments system and outline the banking services provided by the Bank of Canada. Finally, the results of the 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey are presented. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review