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278
result(s)
Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory
Staff Working Paper 2023-11
Janet Hua Jiang,
Daniela Puzzello,
Cathy Zhang
We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation: costs and benefits,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
C92,
D,
D8,
D83,
E,
E4,
E40
The 2021–22 Surge in Inflation
Staff Discussion Paper 2023-3
Oleksiy Kryvtsov,
James (Jim) C. MacGee,
Luis Uzeda
The rise in inflation in 2021–22 sparked a growing literature and debate over the causes of the surge as well as the near- and medium-term path for inflation. This review offers three key messages.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58
Gazing at r-star: A Hysteresis Perspective
Staff Working Paper 2023-5
Paul Beaudry,
Katya Kartashova,
Césaire Meh
Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to show that the major change driving household asset demand over this period is instead an increased desire—for a given age and income level—to hold assets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Fiscal policy,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E31,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E62,
G,
G5,
G51,
H,
H6
Are Temporary Oil Supply Shocks Real?
Staff Working Paper 2022-52
Johan Brannlund,
Geoffrey R. Dunbar,
Reinhard Ellwanger
Hurricanes disrupt oil production in the Gulf of Mexico because producers shut in oil platforms to safeguard lives and prevent damage. We examine the effects of these temporary oil supply shocks on real economic activity in the United States.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32,
Q,
Q3,
Q31,
Q4,
Q41,
Q43
CANVAS: A Canadian Behavioral Agent-Based Model
Staff Working Paper 2022-51
Cars Hommes,
Mario He,
Sebastian Poledna,
Melissa Siqueira,
Yang Zhang
The Bank of Canada’s current suite of models faces challenges in addressing network effects that integrate household and firm-level heterogeneity and their behaviours. We develop CANVAS, a Canadian behavioural agent-based model to contribute to the Bank’s next-generation modelling effort. CANVAS improves forecasting performance and expands capacity for model-based scenario analysis.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
D,
D2,
D22,
D8,
D83,
E,
E1,
E17
Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics
Staff Working Paper 2022-50
Martin Harding,
Jesper Lindé,
Mathias Trabandt
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation: costs and benefits,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E30,
E31,
E32,
E37,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52
Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows
Staff Working Paper 2022-46
Julien Bengui,
Louphou Coulibaly
Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
International financial markets,
International topics,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
D,
D6,
D62,
E,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F32,
F38,
F4,
F41
Core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic
Staff Analytical Note 2022-17
Mikael Khan,
Elyse Sullivan
We assess the usefulness of various measures of core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that Cpi-trim and CPI-median provided the best signal of underlying inflation. The favourable performance of these measures stems from their lack of reliance on historical experience, an especially valuable feature in unprecedented times.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C18,
E,
E3,
E31
Examining recent revisions to CPI-common
Staff Analytical Note 2022-15
Elyse Sullivan
Unusually large revisions to CPI-common in recent months stem from increased common movements across consumer price index components amid broad inflationary pressures. With recent revisions, CPI-common is more closely aligned with the Bank of Canada’s other two preferred measures of core inflation. However, caution is necessary when interpreting real-time estimates of CPI-common in the current environment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C13,
C18,
E,
E3,
E31