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230 result(s)

Sluggish Forecasts

Staff Working Paper 2018-39 Monica Jain
Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts.

On the Evolution of the United Kingdom Price Distributions

We propose a functional principal components method that accounts for stratified random sample weighting and time dependence in the observations to understand the evolution of distributions of monthly micro-level consumer prices for the United Kingdom (UK).

Bending the Curves: Wages and Inflation

As economic slack continues to be absorbed and the labour market tightens, wage growth and inflation could increase faster than expected, which would suggest convexity in their Phillips curves. This note investigates whether there is convexity in the Phillips curves for Canadian wage growth and inflation by testing different empirical approaches over the post-inflation-targeting period.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, J, J3

Could a Higher Inflation Target Enhance Macroeconomic Stability?

Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2 per cent. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3 or 4 per cent could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy.

State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models

Staff Working Paper 2018-14 Luis Uzeda
Implications for signal extraction from specifying unobserved components (UC) models with correlated or orthogonal innovations have been well investigated. In contrast, the forecasting implications of specifying UC models with different state correlation structures are less well understood.

Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation

We use a new real-time database for Canada to study various output gap measures. This includes recently developed measures based on models incorporating many variables as inputs (and therefore requiring real-time data for many variables).

Non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips : un survol de la littérature

Staff Analytical Note 2018-3 Renaud St-Cyr
The paper reviews evidence from the economic literature on the nature of the relationship between excess capacity and inflation, better known as the Phillips curve. In particular, we examine the linearity of this relationship. This is an important issue in the current economic context in which advanced economies are approaching or exceed their potential output.

How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?

Staff Working Paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland
We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts.

Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices

Staff Discussion Paper 2017-12 Rose Cunningham, Min Jae Kim, Christian Friedrich, Kristina Hess
In this paper, we analyze the presence of time variation in the pass-through from the nominal effective exchange rate to import prices for 24 advanced economies over the period 1995–2015. In line with earlier studies in the literature, we find substantial heterogeneity in the level of exchange rate pass-through across countries.

Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature

In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels.