Monetary policy
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The uneven economic consequences of COVID 19: A structural analysis
Using a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities. -
Exploring the potential benefits of inflation overshooting
After a period with the interest rate at the effective lower bound, temporarily overshooting inflation may offer important economic benefits. This may be especially true for vulnerable segments of the population, such as workers with low attachment to the labour force and the long-term unemployed. -
Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound
In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis. -
ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis
ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution. -
A New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks
Combining various high frequency financial data with central bank projections, I construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks not predictable by the public information preceding a central bank’s announcements. I then study the causal effects of monetary policy on the macro economy. -
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Monetary Policy, Trends in Real Interest Rates and Depressed Demand
Over the last few decades, real interest rates have trended downward. The most common explanation is that this reflects depressed demand due to demographic, technological and other real factors. We explore the claim that these trends may have been amplified by certain features of monetary policy. -
June 10, 2021
Going digital has helped the economy through COVID-19
Deputy Governor Timothy Lane talks about the Bank’s decision yesterday to leave the policy rate unchanged. He also discusses how adopting digital technologies supported resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. -
June 10, 2021
The digital transformation and Canada’s economic resilience
Deputy Governor Tim Lane talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and discusses how the digital transformation has supported resilience through the pandemic and may be adding to the economy’s growth potential.