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58 Results

Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter

Staff Working Paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia
Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31

Trade and Market Power in Product and Labor Markets

Staff Working Paper 2021-17 Gaelan MacKenzie
Trade liberalizations increase the sales and input purchases of productive firms relative to their less productive domestic competitors. This reallocation affects firms’ market power in their product and input markets. I quantify how the labour market power of employers affects the distribution and size of the gains from trade.

Do Protectionist Trade Policies Integrate Domestic Markets? Evidence from the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute

Staff Working Paper 2020-10 Jinggang Guo, Craig Johnston
We consider the effects of protectionist trade policies on international and domestic market integration, using evidence from the long-standing softwood lumber trade dispute between Canada and the United States.

Changing Fortunes: Long-Termism—G-Zero, Artificial Intelligence and Debt

Staff Discussion Paper 2019-12 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper discusses three long-term forces that are acting on the global economy and their implications for companies and policy-makers.

No Double Standards: Quantifying the Impact of Standard Harmonization on Trade

Staff Working Paper 2019-36 Julia Schmidt, Walter Steingress
Product standards are omnipresent in industrialized societies. Though standardization can be beneficial for domestic producers, divergent product standards have been categorized as a major obstacle to international trade. This paper quantifies the effect of standard harmonization on trade flows and characterizes the extent to which it changes the cost and demand structure of exporting.

Exchange Rates, Retailers, and Importing: Theory and Firm-Level Evidence

Staff Working Paper 2019-34 Alex Chernoff, Patrick Alexander
We develop a model with firm heterogeneity in importing and cross-border shopping among consumers. Exchange-rate appreciations lower the cost of imported goods, but also lead to more cross-border shopping; hence, the net impact on aggregate retail prices and sales is ambiguous.

The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios

Staff Analytical Note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau
This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger.
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