Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper Staff Discussion Paper 2019-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet, Benjamin Sawatzky Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): O, O1, O13, O14, Q, Q0, Q02
The Productivity Slowdown in Canada: An ICT Phenomenon? Staff Working Paper 2019-2 Jeffrey Mollins, Pierre St-Amant We ask whether a weaker contribution of information and communication technologies (ICT) to productivity growth could account for the productivity slowdown observed in Canada since the early 2000s. To answer this question, we consider several methods capturing channels through which ICT could affect aggregate productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O4, O41, O47
Financial Development Beyond the Formal Financial Market Staff Working Paper 2018-49 Lin Shao This paper studies the effects of financial development, taking into account both formal and informal financing. Using cross-country firm-level data, we document that informal financing is utilized more by rich countries than poor countries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, O, O1, O17, O4, O47
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff Analytical Note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration Staff Working Paper 2018-15 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier There are indications that business dynamism has declined in advanced economies. In particular, firm entry and exit rates have fallen, suggesting that the creative destruction process has lost some of its vitality. Meanwhile, productivity growth has slowed. Some believe that lower entry and exit rates partly explain the weaker productivity growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, M, M1, M13, O, O4, O47
Blockchain Revolution Without the Blockchain Staff Analytical Note 2018-5 Hanna Halaburda The technology behind blockchain has attracted a lot of attention. However, this technology is for the most part not well understood. There is no consensus on what benefits it may bring or on how it may fail. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D8, G, G2, O, O3, O33
Capital-Goods Imports and US Growth Staff Working Paper 2018-1 Michele Cavallo, Anthony Landry Capital-goods imports have become an increasing source of growth for the U.S. economy. To understand this phenomenon, we build a neoclassical growth model with international trade in capital goods in which agents face exogenous paths of total factor and investment-specific productivity measures. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity, Trade integration JEL Code(s): E, E2, F, F2, F4, O, O3, O4
Product Sophistication and the Slowdown in Chinese Export Growth Staff Discussion Paper 2017-15 Mark Kruger, Walter Steingress, Sri Thanabalasingam Chinese real export growth decelerated considerably during the last decade. This paper argues that the slowdown largely resulted from China moving to a more sophisticated mix of exports: China produced more sophisticated goods over which it had pricing power instead of producing greater volumes of less sophisticated products. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F17, O, O1, O10
November 16, 2017 An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 José Dorich, Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4
Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature Staff Analytical Note 2017-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Alexa Evans, Subrata Sarker, Lena Suchanek In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L8, L81, O, O3, O33