How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030 Staff Working Paper 2016-15 Jeannine Bailliu, Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov, Wheaton Welbourn Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E3, E32, O4
November 19, 2015 Is Slower Growth the New Normal in Advanced Economies? Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2015 Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker This article reviews and examines some of the main explanations for the slow growth that many advanced economies continue to experience seven years after the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Does this muted recovery reflect just a prolonged cycle in the aftermath of a financial crisis? Is it due to a structural inadequacy of demand leading to a long-lasting liquidity trap? Or is it largely supply side in nature, reflecting demographic and technological factors? Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4, O40
Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies Staff Working Paper 2015-23 Juncal Cunado, Soojin Jo, Fernando Perez de Gracia This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify three different types of oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, O, O5, O53, Q, Q4, Q43
A New Data Set of Quarterly Total Factor Productivity in the Canadian Business Sector Staff Working Paper 2015-6 Shutao Cao, Sharon Kozicki In this paper, a quarterly growth-accounting data set is built for the Canadian business sector with the top-down approach of Diewert and Yu (2012). Inputs and outputs are measured and used to estimate the quarterly total factor productivity (TFP). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, F, F4, F43, O, O4, O47
November 13, 2014 Firm Strategy, Competitiveness and Productivity: The Case for Canada Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 Lori Rennison, Farid Novin, Matthieu Verstraete At a time when the Bank is expecting a rotation of demand toward exports and investment, and transformative global trends are placing increasing emphasis on innovation, technology and organizational learning, an understanding of the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms and the factors affecting them has become particularly relevant. This article summarizes findings from a Bank of Canada survey of 151 firms designed to extract signals on elements of firm strategy and organizational capital in order to help inform the macroeconomic outlook. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D23, D24, E, E2, E22, F, F2, F20, L, L1, L10, L2, L20, M, M1, M10, O, O3, O31, O4, O47
Improving Public Equity Markets? No Pain, No Gain Staff Working Paper 2014-41 Katya Kartashova This paper quantifies the effects of improving public equity markets on macroeconomic aggregates and welfare. I use an open-economy extension of Angeletos (2007), where entrepreneurs face idiosyncratic productivity risk in privately held firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G11, O, O1, O11, O16
Is There a Quality Bias in the Canadian CPI? Evidence from Micro Data Staff Working Paper 2013-24 Oleksiy Kryvtsov Rising consumer prices may reflect shifts by consumers to new higher-priced products, mostly for durable and semi-durable goods. I apply Bils’ (2009) methodology to newly available Canadian consumer price data for non-shelter goods and services to estimate how price increases can be divided between quality growth and price inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, M, M1, M11, O, O4, O47
China’s Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America Staff Working Paper 2012-32 Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, M. Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci, TengTeng Xu The international business cycle is very important for Latin America’s economic performance as the recent global crisis vividly illustrated. This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, F, F4, F44, O, O5, O54
Inflation and Growth: A New Keynesian Perspective Staff Working Paper 2012-23 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Kevin Moran The long-run relation between growth and inflation has not yet been studied in the context of nominal price and wage rigidities, despite the fact that these rigidities now figure prominently in workhorse macroeconomic models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, O, O3, O31, O4, O42
Innovation and Growth with Financial, and Other, Frictions Staff Working Paper 2011-25 Jonathan Chiu, Césaire Meh, Randall Wright The generation and implementation of ideas, or knowledge, is crucial for economic performance. We study this process in a model of endogenous growth with frictions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E4, G, G2, O, O3, O4