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541 Results

Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment

Staff Working Paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée
We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E2, E24, J, J3, Q, Q5, Q54

Decision Synthesis in Monetary Policy

Staff Working Paper 2024-30 Tony Chernis, Gary Koop, Emily Tallman, Mike West
We use Bayesian predictive decision synthesis to formalize monetary policy decision-making. We develop a case-study of monetary policy decision-making of an inflation-targeting central bank using multiple models in a manner that considers decision goals, expectations and outcomes.

Untapped Potential: Mobile Device Ownership and Mobile Payments in Canada

Staff Working Paper 2024-25 Marie-Hélène Felt, Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera
We present a two-stage model of mobile phone and mobile payment usage that controls for selectivity. This reveals unobserved factors that work against having a mobile phone and toward mobile paying. Therefore, people who are unable to acquire or choose not to own a mobile device might have unmet payment needs.

Non-Parametric Identification and Testing of Quantal Response Equilibrium

Staff Working Paper 2024-24 Johannes Hoelzemann, Ryan Webb, Erhao Xie
We show that the utility function and the error distribution are non-parametrically over-identified under Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE). This leads to a simple test for QRE. We illustrate our method in a Monte Carlo exercise and a laboratory experiment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C57, C9, C92

Decomposing Systemic Risk: The Roles of Contagion and Common Exposures

Staff Working Paper 2024-19 Grzegorz Halaj, Ruben Hipp
We examine systemic risks within the Canadian banking sector, decomposing them into three contribution channels: contagion, common exposures, and idiosyncratic risk. Through a structural model, we dissect how interbank relationships and market conditions contribute to systemic risk, providing new insights for financial stability.

Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada

Staff Discussion Paper 2024-4 Calista Cheung, James Fudurich, Janki Shah, Farrukh Suvankulov
What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D0, G, G3, G38, J, J1, J15

Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm

We build a network formation game of firms with trade flows to study the adoption and usage of a new digital currency as an alternative to correspondent banking.

Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems

Staff Working Paper 2024-15 Ajit Desai, Anneke Kosse, Jacob Sharples
Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems.

Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals

Staff Working Paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang
We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines.
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