Robert (Bob) Fay was appointed Deputy Managing Director of the Bank’s International Economic Analysis Department (INT) in September 2013. He is responsible for assessing global economic developments and their implications for Canada, as well as investigating a wide variety of issues, including those related to the international monetary system and global financial architecture.
In 2001, after spending ten years in Paris as an economist at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Mr. Fay was made Principal Researcher at the Bank of Canada in the Current Analysis Division of the Research Department. He then became Assistant Chief of that department in 2002, working on structural issues in the Canadian economy, as well as short-term forecasting.
In 2010, Mr. Fay was appointed Special Assistant to the Governor. In this capacity, he served as the Governor’s Chief of Staff and worked closely with members of Governing Council, other members of the Management Forum and Bank staff to manage the information requirements of the Governor. He held this position until his current appointment.
Mr. Fay was born in Toronto. He holds a master’s degree in economics from Queen’s University.
Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.
Despite the US unemployment rate being close to estimates of the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), measures of underemployment remain elevated, which could be an indication of remaining labour market slack. The shares of involuntary part-time workers and long-term unemployment are high relative to the current stage of the business cycle, suggesting available labour inputs are being underutilized.
Inflation-targeting frameworks have remained relatively stable over the past few years despite significant challenges, including prolonged low inflation, a large negative commodity price shock and rising financial stability concerns in some economies. The tools used by central banks have, however, evolved substantially. This article provides a survey of the developments in the inflation-targeting frameworks of 10 central banks in advanced economies that correspond to the three research areas of the Bank of Canada’s 2016 renewal: the level of the inflation target, the measurement of core inflation and financial stability considerations in the formulation of monetary policy.
The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.