Staff research, Publications
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May 9, 2024
Financial System Survey highlights—2024
This article presents the key results from the 2024 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted between February 20 and March 8. The survey included a special section on potential risks arising from different hypothetical interest-rate paths. -
May 9, 2024
Financial Stability Report—2024
Canada’s financial system remains resilient. Over the past year, households, businesses, banks and non-bank financial institutions have continued to proactively adjust to higher interest rates. But this adjustment is not yet over and continues to present risks to financial stability. Key risks include those related to debt serviceability and asset valuations. -
May 2, 2024
Annual Report 2023
The Annual Report outlines the Bank’s activities and achievements in 2023. It includes the financial statements and a message from Governor Tiff Macklem. -
May 2, 2024
Bank of Canada Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks 2023
This report lays out elements of the Bank’s strategy related to climate change and details how the issue will be managed holistically across the organization, following the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. -
Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment
We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26. -
Assessing global potential output growth: April 2024
This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2024 Monetary Policy Report. -
Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update
We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019. -
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update
We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes. -
The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present and Future
The decline in safe real interest rates over the past three decades has reignited discussions on the neutral real interest rate, known as R*. We address the determinants and estimation methods of R*, as well as the factors influencing its decline and its future trajectory.