Econometric and statistical methods

• No Double Standards: Quantifying the Impact of Standard Harmonization on Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2019-36 Julia Schmidt, Walter Steingress

  Product standards are omnipresent in industrialized societies. Though standardization can be beneficial for domestic producers, divergent product standards have been categorized as a major obstacle to international trade. This paper quantifies the effect of standard harmonization on trade flows and characterizes the extent to which it changes the cost and demand structure of exporting.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F15, L, L1, L15

• The Intergenerational Correlation of Employment: Is There a Role for Work Culture?

  Staff Working Paper 2019-33 Gabriela Galassi, David Koll, Lukas Mayr

  We document a substantial positive correlation of employment status between mothers and their children in the United States, linking data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the NLSY79 Children and Young Adults. After controlling for ability, education and wealth, a one-year increase in a mother’s employment is associated with six weeks more employment of her child on average.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J6, J62

• Explaining the Interplay Between Merchant Acceptance and Consumer Adoption in Two-Sided Markets for Payment Methods

  Staff Working Paper 2019-32 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Oleksandr Shcherbakov

  Recent consumer and merchant surveys show a decrease in the use of cash at point-of-sale (POS). Increasingly, consumers and merchants have access to a growing array of payment innovations as substitutes for cash.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital Currencies and Fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, L, L1, L13, L15, L8, L81, L9, L96

• Resolving Failed Banks: Uncertainty, Multiple Bidding & Auction Design

  Staff Working Paper 2019-30 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Brent Hickman, Eric Richert

  Bank resolution is costly. In the United States, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) typically resolves failing banks by auction.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial Institutions JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, D, D4, D44, G, G2, G21

• Tail Index Estimation: Quantile-Driven Threshold Selection

  Staff Working Paper 2019-28 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Laurens de Haan, Casper G. de Vries

  The most extreme events, such as economic crises, are rare but often have a great impact. It is difficult to precisely determine the likelihood of such events because the sample is small.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58

• Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports

  Staff Working Paper 2019-17 Thierry Mayer, Walter Steingress

  This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F3, F31, F32

• Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2019-16 Kerem Tuzcuoglu

  Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C25, C5, C58, G, G2, G24

• Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-12 Mikael Khan, Taylor Webley

  We use a recently developed model and loan-level micro data to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E2, R, R2, R21

• Firm-level Investment Under Imperfect Capital Markets in Ukraine

  Staff Working Paper 2019-14 Oleksandr Shcherbakov

  This paper develops and estimates a model of firm-level fixed capital investment when firms face borrowing constraints.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, D, D2, D24, G, G3, G31

• Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet, Benjamin Sawatzky

  Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): O, O1, O13, O14, Q, Q0, Q02