Econometric and statistical methods

• Welfare Analysis of Equilibria With and Without Early Termination Fees in the US Wireless Industry

  Staff Working Paper 2020-9 Joseph Cullen, Nicolas Schutz, Oleksandr Shcherbakov

  The elimination of long-term contracts and early termination fees (ETFs) in the US wireless industry at the end of 2015 increased monthly service fees by 2 to 5 percent. Nevertheless, consumers are clearly better off without ETFs. While firms’ revenues from ETFs vanish, their profits from monthly fees increase. As a result, the overall effect on producer profits is less clear.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L1, L15, L9, L96

• IMPACT: The Bank of Canada’s International Model for Projecting Activity

  Technical Report No. 116 Patrick Blagrave, Claudia Godbout, Justin-Damien Guénette, René Lalonde, Nikita Perevalov

  We present the structure and features of the International Model for Projecting Activity (IMPACT), a global semi-structural model used to conduct projections and policy analysis at the Bank of Canada. Major blocks of the model are developed based on the rational error correction framework of Kozicki and Tinsley (1999), which allows the model to strike a balance between theoretical structure and empirical performance.

  Content Type(s): Technical Reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, E, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F0, F01, F3, F32, F4, F47

• Identifying Consumer-Welfare Changes when Online Search Platforms Change Their List of Search Results

  Staff Working Paper 2020-5 Ryan Martin

  Online shopping is often guided by search platforms. Consumers type keywords into query boxes, and search platforms deliver a list of products. Consumers' attention is limited, and exhaustive searches are often impractical.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D1, D11, D12, D6, D8, D83, L, L4, L40

• Monetary Payoff and Utility Function in Adaptive Learning Models

  Staff Working Paper 2019-50 Erhao Xie

  When players repeatedly face an identical or similar game (e.g., coordination game, technology adoption game, or product choice game), they may learn through experience to perform better in the future. This learning behaviour has important economic implications.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C57, C7, C72, C9, C92

• On the Evolution of Multiple Jobholding in Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2019-49 Olena Kostyshyna, Etienne Lalé

  The number of workers who hold more than one job (a.k.a. multiple jobholders) has increased recently in Canada. While this seems to echo the view that non-standard work arrangements are becoming pervasive, the increase has in fact been trivial compared with the long-run rise of multiple jobholding that has occurred since the mid-1970s.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J6, J60

• 2018 Merchant Acceptance Survey

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-31 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson

  In 2015, the Bank of Canada surveyed merchants and found that cash was nearly universally accepted (Fung, Huynh and Kosse 2017). Since 2015, retail payments in Canada have become increasingly digitalized, as many Canadians have adopted digital payment innovations like contactless cards and Interac e-Transfer.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Analytical Notes Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital Currencies and Fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2

• Extreme Downside Risk in Asset Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2019-46 Lerby Ergun

  Financial markets can experience sudden and extreme downward movements. Investors are highly concerned about the performance of their assets in such scenarios. Some assets perform badly in a downturn in the market; others have milder reactions.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Asset Pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G1, G11, G12

• 2018 Bitcoin Omnibus Survey: Awareness and Usage

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-10 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson

  The Bank of Canada continues to use the Bitcoin Omnibus Survey (BTCOS) to monitor trends in Canadians’ awareness, ownership and use of Bitcoin. The most recent iteration was conducted in late 2018, following an 85 percent decline in the price of Bitcoin throughout the year.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital Currencies and Fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O5, O51

• No Double Standards: Quantifying the Impact of Standard Harmonization on Trade

  Staff Working Paper 2019-36 Julia Schmidt, Walter Steingress

  Product standards are omnipresent in industrialized societies. Though standardization can be beneficial for domestic producers, divergent product standards have been categorized as a major obstacle to international trade. This paper quantifies the effect of standard harmonization on trade flows and characterizes the extent to which it changes the cost and demand structure of exporting.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F15, L, L1, L15

• The Intergenerational Correlation of Employment: Is There a Role for Work Culture?

  Staff Working Paper 2019-33 Gabriela Galassi, David Koll, Lukas Mayr

  We document a substantial positive correlation of employment status between mothers and their children in the United States, linking data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the NLSY79 Children and Young Adults. After controlling for ability, education and wealth, a one-year increase in a mother’s employment is associated with six weeks more employment of her child on average.

  Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J6, J62