Econometric and statistical methods

• Assessing Labour Market Slack for Monetary Policy

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-15 Erik Ens, Laurence Savoie-Chabot, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee

  Measuring labour market slack is essential for central banks: without full employment in the economy, inflation will not stay close to target. We propose a comprehensive approach to assessing labour market slack that reflects the complexity and diversity of the labour market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6

• Energy Efficiency and Fluctuations in CO2 Emissions

  Staff Working Paper 2021-47 Soojin Jo, Lilia Karnizova

  Carbon dioxide emissions have been commonly modelled as rising and falling with total output. Yet many factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements and shifts to cleaner energy, can break this relationship. We evaluate these factors using US data and find that changes in energy efficiency of consumption goods explain a significant proportion of emissions fluctuations. This finding also implies that models that omit energy efficiency likely overestimate the trade-off between environmental protection and economic performance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Climate change, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43, Q5, Q50, Q55

• Covariates Hiding in the Tails

  Staff Working Paper 2021-45 Milian Bachem, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries

  We characterize the bias in cross-sectional Hill estimates caused by common underlying factors and propose two simple-to-implement remedies. To test for the presence, direction and size of the bias, we use monthly US stock returns and annual US Census county population data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58

• Can the characteristics of new mortgages predict borrowers’ financial stress? Insights from the 2014 oil price decline

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-22 Olga Bilyk, Ken Chow, Yang Xu

  We study the relationship between characteristics of new mortgages and borrowers’ financial stress in Canada’s energy-intensive regions following the 2014 collapse in oil prices. We find that borrowers with limited home equity were more likely to have difficulty repaying debt.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C2, C25, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G21, G5, G51, R, R2, R21

• Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes

  Staff Working Paper 2021-41 Madeline Hanson, Daniela Hauser, Romanos Priftis

  How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rate regimes, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F44, H, H2, H20

• Estimating Large-Dimensional Connectedness Tables: The Great Moderation Through the Lens of Sectoral Spillovers

  Staff Working Paper 2021-37 Felix Brunner, Ruben Hipp

  Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, E, E2, E23, E27

• Cash and COVID-19: The impact of the second wave in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-12 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Marie-Hélène Felt, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Daneal O’Habib, Julia Zhu

  The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased the demand for cash. Cash in circulation increased sharply from March through December 2020, particularly in the early months of this period. Although use of electronic methods of payment also increased significantly, cash use for payments remains high for low-value transactions and among certain demographic groups.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

• A New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2021-29 Xu Zhang

  Combining various high frequency financial data with central bank projections, I construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks not predictable by the public information preceding a central bank’s announcements. I then study the causal effects of monetary policy on the macro economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0

• Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution

  Staff Working Paper 2021-24 Francois-Michel Boire, Thibaut Duprey, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, C5, C53, E, E5, E52, E6, E62

• Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-9 Ugochi Emenogu, Cars Hommes, Mikael Khan

  We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, R, R2, R21, R3, R31