Ph.D. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (2015)
M.S. in Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison (2012)
M.A. in Economics, Peking University (2010)
B.Econ. in Statistics, Hunan University (2007)
Zhentong Lu is a Principal Researcher in the Payment System Oversight Division of the Financial Stability Department (FSD). Before joining the Bank, he was an Assistant Professor in the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. His main research areas are empirical industrial organization, applied econometrics and payment economics.
Staff working papers
From LVTS to Lynx: Quantitative Assessment of Payment System TransitionWe quantitatively assess the changes in participants’ payment behaviour from modernizing Canada's high-value payments system to Lynx. Our analysis suggests that Lynx's liquidity-saving mechanism encourages liquidity pooling and early payments submission, resulting in improved efficiency for participants but with slightly increased payment delays.
Transmission of Cyber Risk Through the Canadian Wholesale Payment SystemThis paper studies how the impact of a cyber attack that paralyzes one or multiple banks' ability to send payments would transmit to other banks through the Canadian wholesale payment system. Based on historical payment data, we simulate a wide range of scenarios and evaluate the total payment disruption in the system.
Quantifying the Economic Benefits of Payments Modernization: the Case of the Large-Value Payment SystemCanada is undertaking a major initiative to modernize its payments ecosystem. The modernized ecosystem is expected to bring significant benefits to Canadian financial markets and the overall economy. We develop an empirical framework to quantify the economic benefits of modernizing the payment system in Canada.
Measuring the Effectiveness of Salespeople: Evidence from a Cold-Drink MarketSalespeople are widely employed in many industries. We leverage a unique data set on retail sales from a leading Chinese cold-drink manufacturer and information on the firm’s salespeople assignment rule to measure the causal effect of salespeople on product revenue.
The Effects of Government Licensing on E-commerce: Evidence from AlibabaHow does government licensing affect selling on online platforms? We examine the impact of China’s 2015 Food Safety Law on sellers and buyers on Alibaba, the largest e-commerce platform in that country.
Examining the Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on China’s Housing MarketHow do “cooling measures” in the housing market—policies aimed to stabilize prices—affect the market? We use a structural model of housing demand and price competition among developers to evaluate China’s home purchase restriction policies implemented in 2010–11.
Predicting Payment Migration in CanadaDevelopments are underway to replace Canada’s two core payment systems with three new systems. We use a discrete choice model to predict migration patterns of end-users and financial institutions for future systems and discuss their policy implications.
An Economic Perspective on Payments MigrationConsumers, businesses and banks make millions of payments each day using a variety of instruments, such as debit cards, cheques and wires. Canada is currently developing three new systems to process these transactions: Lynx, Settlement Optimization Engine (SOE) and Real-Time Rail (RTR).
- “Quantifying the economic benefits of payment modernization: the case of the large-value payment system” (with Neville Arjani and Fuchun Li), October 2022, accepted by Journal of Financial Market Infrastructures.
- “Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of Random Coefficient Logit Model for Aggregate Demand” (with Xiaoxia Shi and Jing Tao), October 2022, accepted by Journal of Econometrics.
- “Estimating Demand for Differentiated Products with Zeroes in Market Share Data” (with Amit Gandhi and Xiaoxia Shi), January 2022, forthcoming at Quantitative Economics.
- “Estimating Multinomial Choice Models with Unobserved Choice Sets,” Journal of Econometrics, February 2022.
- “The Effects of Government Licensing on E-Commerce: Evidence from Alibaba” (with Ginger Zhe Jin, Xiaolu Zhou, Chunxiao Li), Journal of Law and Economics, February 2022.
- “Not too much nor too little: Salience bias in mobile plan choices” (with Haofeng Jin, Liqiang Huang and Junsheng Dou), Telecommunications Policy, May 2021.
- “Examining the Impact of Home Purchase Restrictions on China’s Housing Market”, (with Jian Hong and Sisi Zhang), China Economic Review, June 2021.
- “Predicting Payment Migration in Canada”, (with Anneke Kosse and Gabriel Xerri), Journal of Financial Market Infrastructures, March 2021.