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120 Results

Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022

We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment.

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment

We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%.

Job Ladder and Business Cycles

Staff Working Paper 2022-14 Felipe Alves
During downturns, workers get stuck in low-productivity jobs and wages remain stagnant. I build an heterogenous agent incomplete market model with a full job ladder that accounts for these facts. An adverse financial shock calibrated to the US Great Recession replicates the period’s slow recovery and missing disinflation.
February 9, 2022

The role of Canadian business in fostering non-inflationary growth

Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem Canadian Chamber of Commerce Ottawa, Ontario
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how business investment and stronger productivity are vital to sustaining non-inflationary economic growth.
February 9, 2022

Producing growth with less inflation

Speech summary Tiff Macklem Canadian Chamber of Commerce Canada 360 Summit Ottawa, Ontario
Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how—by investing in technology and people—businesses can help the economy grow more with less inflation.

Job Applications and Labour Market Flows

Staff Working Paper 2021-49 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee
Although the number of job applications has risen, job-finding rates remain relatively unchanged while job-separation rates have significantly declined. Rather than raising the probability of finding a job, we find that a rise in applications raises the probability of finding a good match, as evidenced by the decline in separation rates.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J6, J63, J64
June 10, 2021

Going digital has helped the economy through COVID-19

Speech summary Timothy Lane Western Canadian Chapters of Advocis Edmonton, Alberta, Vancouver, British Columbia, Winnipeg, Manitoba
Deputy Governor Timothy Lane talks about the Bank’s decision yesterday to leave the policy rate unchanged. He also discusses how adopting digital technologies supported resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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