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144 Results

A Reference Guide for the Business Outlook Survey

Staff Discussion Paper 2020-15 David Amirault, Naveen Rai, Laurent Martin
The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) has become an important part of monetary policy deliberations at the Bank of Canada and is also well known in Canadian policy and financial circles. This paper compiles more than 20 years of experience conducting the BOS and serves as a comprehensive reference manual.

How Should Unemployment Insurance Vary over the Business Cycle?

Staff Working Paper 2020-47 Serdar Birinci, Kurt See
Should unemployment benefits be more generous during economic downturns? The optimal amount and duration of benefit payments ultimately depend on the demographic and wealth characteristics of benefit recipients.

Interest Rate Uncertainty as a Policy Tool

Staff Working Paper 2020-13 Fabio Ghironi, Galip Kemal Ozhan
We study a novel policy tool—interest rate uncertainty—that can be used to discourage inefficient capital inflows and to adjust the composition of external account between shortterm securities and foreign direct investment (FDI).

Social Learning and Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound

This research develops a model in which the economy is directly influenced by how pessimistic or optimistic economic agents are about the future. The agents may hold different views and update them as new economic data become available.

What Does Structural Analysis of the External Finance Premium Say About Financial Frictions?

Staff Working Paper 2019-38 Jelena Zivanovic
I use a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) with sign restrictions to provide conditional evidence on the behavior of the US external finance premium (EFP). The results indicate that the excess bond premium, a proxy for the EFP, reacts countercyclically to supply and monetary policy shocks and procyclically to demand shocks.

Bridging Canadian Business Lending and Market-Based Risk Measures

Staff Analytical Note 2019-26 Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Maxime Leboeuf
Lending to business is central to economic growth because it supports investment by firms. Knowing how market participants view risk in the financial system can give the Bank of Canada information about future growth in business loans. In this note, we look at three market-based risk measures and find that sudden increases in the perception of risk in the Canadian banking system are associated with a weaker outlook for business loans and real gross domestic product.

Exploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies

Staff Discussion Paper 2019-8 Rose Cunningham, Vikram Rai, Kristina Hess
We investigate the extent to which excess supply (demand) in labour markets contributes to a lower (higher) growth rate of average nominal wages for workers. Using panel methods on data from 10 advanced economies for 1992–2018, we produce reduced-form estimates of a wage Phillips curve specification that is consistent with a New Keynesian framework.