Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019 Staff Analytical Note 2019-13 Fares Bounajm, Jean-Philippe Cayen, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Peter Selcuk This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
Global Commodity Markets and Rebalancing in China: The Case of Copper Staff Discussion Paper 2019-3 Jeannine Bailliu, Doga Bilgin, Kun Mo, Kurt Niquidet, Benjamin Sawatzky Given that China accounts for about half of global copper consumption, it is reasonable to expect that any significant change in Chinese copper consumption will have an impact on the global market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): O, O1, O13, O14, Q, Q0, Q02
April 1, 2019 Poloz talks trade: Canada’s services a bright spot Speech summary Stephen S. Poloz Baffin Regional Chamber of Commerce (BRCC) and the Nunavut Mining Symposium (NMS) Iqaluit, Nunavut Stephen S. Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Baffin Regional Chamber of Commerce (BRCC) and the Nunavut Mining Symposium. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Service sector, Trade integration
April 1, 2019 Turbulent Times for Trade Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Baffin Regional Chamber of Commerce (BRCC) and the Nunavut Mining Symposium (NMS) Iqaluit, Nunavut Governor Poloz talks about slowing international trade and how Canada’s rapidly growing services industries can help drive exports and growth. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Service sector, Trade integration
Drivers of Weak Wage Growth in Advanced Economies Staff Analytical Note 2019-3 Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Kristina Hess, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle Since the global financial crisis, advanced-economy wage growth has been generally low relative to past recoveries, especially after accounting for the evolution of labour market conditions over this period. This paper investigates a variety of potential explanations for this weakness, drawing on findings from the literature as well as analysis of recent labour market data in advanced economies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F0, J, J3
Can Capital Deepening Explain the Global Decline in Labor’s Share? Staff Working Paper 2019-3 Andrew Glover, Jacob Short We estimate an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor near or below one, which implies that capital deepening cannot explain the global decline in labor's share. Our methodology derives from transition paths in the neo-classical growth model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, International topics, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E22, E25, J, J3
Does US or Canadian Macro News Drive Canadian Bond Yields? Staff Analytical Note 2018-38 Bruno Feunou, Rodrigo Sekkel, Morvan Nongni-Donfack We show that a large share of low-frequency (quarterly) movements in Canadian government bond yields can be explained by macroeconomic news, even though high-frequency (daily) changes are driven by other shocks. Furthermore, we show that US macro news—not domestic news— explains most of the quarterly variation in Canadian bond yields. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43
The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada Staff Working Paper 2018-56 Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou How do global oil price shocks spread through Canada’s economy? With Canada’s regionally diverse economy in mind, we explore the implications of oil price shocks for Canadian housing markets and regional economies. We show that the belief that oil price shocks only matter in oil-rich regions is false. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Housing, International topics, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): F, F4, F43, Q, Q3, Q33, Q4, Q43, R, R1, R12, R3, R31
Non-Performing Loans, Fiscal Costs and Credit Expansion in China Staff Working Paper 2018-53 Huixin Bi, Yongquan Cao, Wei Dong This paper studies how the credit expansion policy pursued by the Chinese government in an effort to stimulate its economy in the post-crisis period affects bank–firm loan contracts and the macroeconomy. We build a structural model with financial frictions in which the optimal loan contract reflects the trade-off between leverage and the probability of default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E6, E62
Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies Staff Discussion Paper 2018-13 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Alexander Lam This paper introduces a new tool to monitor economic and financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies. We obtain vulnerability indexes for several early warning indicators covering 26 emerging markets from 1990 to 2017 and use them to monitor the evolution of vulnerabilities before, during and after an economic or financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C82, F, F3, F34, G, G0, G01, G1, G15