Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage Staff Working Paper 2020-56 Marie-Hélène Felt Contactless payment cards are a competitive alternative to cash. Using Canadian panel data from 2010 to 2017, this study investigates whether contactless credit cards are an important contributor to the decline in the transactional use of cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E41
The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada Staff Working Paper 2020-52 Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou, Kevin Moran We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E31
Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill Staff Working Paper 2020-46 Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park How are your past, current and future earnings related to those of your parents? We explore this by using 37 years of Canadian tax data on two generations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, J, J2, J24, J6, J62
Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors Staff Working Paper 2020-45 Yunjong Eo, Luis Uzeda, Benjamin Wong The goods and services sectors have experienced considerably different dynamics over the past three decades. Our goal in this paper is to understand how such contrasting behaviors at the sectoral level affect the aggregate level of trend inflation dynamics. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E5, E52
On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity Staff Working Paper 2020-42 Ruben Hipp Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, C32, C5, C58, L, L1, L14
The New Benchmark for Forecasts of the Real Price of Crude Oil Staff Working Paper 2020-39 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden How can we assess the quality of a forecast? We propose a new benchmark to evaluate forecasts of temporally aggregated series and show that the real price of oil is more difficult to predict than we thought. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q47
Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models Staff Working Paper 2020-38 Barbara Sadaba, Sunčica Vujič, Sofia Maier What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital? Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, I, I2, J, J2
2019 Cash Alternative Survey Results Staff Discussion Paper 2020-8 Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Mitchell Nicholson The role of cash in Canadians’ lives has been evolving, as innovations in digital payments have become more widely adopted over the past decade. We contribute to the Bank of Canada’s research on central bank digital currency by monitoring Canadians’ use of cash and their adoption of digital payment methods. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O51
Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning Staff Working Paper 2020-33 Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C6, C65, C8, C81, E, E4, E42, E5, E51
Sample Calibration of the Online CFM Survey Technical Report No. 118 Marie-Hélène Felt, David Laferrière The Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) survey uses non-probability sampling for data collection, so selection bias is likely. We outline methods for obtaining survey weights and discuss the conditions necessary for these weights to eliminate selection bias. We obtain calibration weights for the 2018 and 2019 online CFM samples. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83