Real Effects of Price Stability with Endogenous Nominal Indexation Staff Working Paper 2009-16 Césaire Meh, Vincenzo Quadrini, Yaz Terajima We study a model with repeated moral hazard where financial contracts are not fully indexed to inflation because nominal prices are observed with delay as in Jovanovic & Ueda (1997). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E44, E5, E52
Heterogeneous Beliefs and Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles in a Small Open Economy Staff Working Paper 2009-15 Hajime Tomura This paper introduces heterogeneous beliefs among households in a small open economy model for the Canadian economy. The model suggests that simultaneous boom-bust cycles in house prices, output, investment, consumption and hours worked emerge when credit-constrained mortgage borrowers expect that future house prices will rise and this expectation is neither shared by savers nor realized ex-post. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52
Testing for Financial Contagion with Applications to the Canadian Banking System Staff Working Paper 2009-14 Fuchun Li The author proposes a new test for financial contagion based on a non-parametric measure of the cross-market correlation. The test does not depend on the assumption that the data are drawn from a given probability distribution; therefore, it allows for maximal flexibility in fitting into the data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
Price Movements in the Canadian Residential Mortgage Market Staff Working Paper 2009-13 Jason Allen, Darcey McVanel The authors empirically analyze the price-setting behaviour of the major Canadian banks in the residential mortgage market over the period 1991–2007. They use weekly posted prices of the major mortgage providers to study the degree of competition in mortgage price setting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2
Complex Ownership and Capital Structure Staff Working Paper 2009-12 Teodora Paligorova, Zhaoxia Xu This paper investigates the impact of pyramid ownership structure and multiple controlling shareholders on firm leverage. Pyramids, having at least one controlling shareholder and a subsidiary, rely significantly more on debt financing than non-pyramid firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): G, G3, G31, G32
Information Flows and Aggregate Persistence Staff Working Paper 2009-11 Oleksiy Kryvtsov Models with imperfect information that generate persistent monetary nonneutrality predominantly rely on assumptions leading to substantial heterogeneity of information across price-setters. This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model in which the degree of heterogeneity of information is determined endogenously. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E31, E32
Computing the Accuracy of Complex Non-Random Sampling Methods: The Case of the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey Staff Working Paper 2009-10 Daniel de Munnik, David Dupuis, Mark Illing A number of central banks publish their own business conditions survey based on non-random sampling methods. The results of these surveys influence monetary policy decisions and thus affect expectations in financial markets. To date, however, no one has computed the statistical accuracy of these surveys because their respective non-random sampling method renders this assessment non-trivial. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C4, C8, C81, C9, C90
Assessing the Implementation of the IMF's 2007 Surveillance Decision Staff Discussion Paper 2009-6 Robert Lavigne, Garima Vasishtha The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently adopted the "2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance Over Members' Policies," a landmark reform that modernizes the general principles of IMF surveillance. However, support for the reform was not unanimous, and doubts have been expressed about how the Decision would be applied in practice. The authors assess the first year […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33
Inventories and Real Rigidities in New Keynesian Business Cycle Models Staff Working Paper 2009-9 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Virgiliu Midrigan Kryvtsov and Midrigan (2008) study the behavior of inventories in an economy with menu costs, fixed ordering costs and the possibility of stock-outs. This paper extends their analysis to a richer setting that is capable of more closely accounting for the dynamics of the US business cycle. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F1, F12
Optimal Policy under Commitment and Price Level Stationarity Staff Working Paper 2009-8 Gino Cateau This paper proposes a simple analytical method to determine the stationarity of an unnormalized variable from the solution to a normalized model i.e. a model whose variables must be expressed in relative terms or must be differenced for a solution to exist. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58