Philipp Maier

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Staff Discussion Papers

Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis

Staff Discussion Paper 2009-3 René Lalonde, Philipp Maier, Dirk Muir
The authors explore the usefulness of macroeconomic models in analyzing global economic developments by examining movements in commodity prices between July 2007 and July 2008. They use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model and investigate the longer-term outlook for commodity prices by constructing two different, globally consistent, scenarios for emerging Asia.

The Canadian Dollar and Commodity Prices: Has the Relationship Changed over Time?

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-15 Philipp Maier, Brian DePratto
The authors examine the impact of the recent run-up in energy and non-energy commodity prices on the Canadian dollar. Using the Bank of Canada's exchange rate equation, they find that the differences between the actual value of the Canadian exchange rate and the simulated values observed in 2007 are not historically large. Still, given that […]
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

Reforming the IMF: Lessons from Modern Central Banking

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-6 Philipp Maier, Eric Santor
The authors examine the institutional and governance framework of modern central banks to determine whether there are lessons that can be applied to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) institutional framework. Such a comparison is appealing for two reasons. First, both central banks and the IMF carry out tasks that can be described as "delegated responsibilities." […]
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Discussion Papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3

Hedge Funds and Financial Stability: The State of the Debate

Staff Discussion Paper 2007-9 Michael R. King, Philipp Maier
The authors review the state of the debate on hedge funds and the potential threat that hedge funds pose to financial stability. The collapse of a hedge fund or a group of hedge funds might pose a systemic risk directly by damaging systematically important financial institutions, or indirectly by increasing market volatility and generating a […]

Staff Working Papers

Mixed Frequency Forecasts for Chinese GDP

Staff Working Paper 2011-11 Philipp Maier
We evaluate different approaches for using monthly indicators to predict Chinese GDP for the current and the next quarter (‘nowcasts’ and ‘forecasts’, respectively). We use three types of mixed-frequency models, one based on an economic activity indicator (Liu et al., 2007), one based on averaging over indicator models (Stock and Watson, 2004), and a static factor model (Stock and Watson, 2002).

The Impact of the Global Business Cycle on Small Open Economies: A FAVAR Approach for Canada

Staff Working Paper 2011-2 Garima Vasishtha, Philipp Maier
Building on the growing evidence on the importance of large data sets for empirical macroeconomic modeling, we use a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) model with more than 260 series for 20 OECD countries to analyze how global developments affect the Canadian economy.

‘Lean' versus ‘Rich' Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession

Staff Working Paper 2010-37 Marco J. Lombardi, Philipp Maier
We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data from national economies (pseudo-real time data).

On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment

Staff Working Paper 2010-10 Nikita Perevalov, Philipp Maier
The good forecasting performance of factor models has been well documented in the literature. While many studies focus on a very limited set of variables (typically GDP and inflation), this study evaluates forecasting performance at disaggregated levels to examine the source of the improved forecasting accuracy, relative to a simple autoregressive model. We use the latest revision of over 100 U.S. time series over the period 1974-2009 (monthly and quarterly data).

What Drives Exchange Rates? New Evidence from a Panel of U.S. Dollar Bilateral Exchange Rates

We use a novel approach to identify economic developments that drive exchange rates in the long run. Using a panel of six quarterly U.S. bilateral real exchange rates – Australia, Canada, the euro, Japan, New Zealand and the United Kingdom – over the 1980-2007 period, a dynamic factor model points to two common factors.

How Changes in Oil Prices Affect the Macroeconomy

Staff Working Paper 2009-33 Brian DePratto, Carlos De Resende, Philipp Maier
We estimate a New Keynesian general-equilibrium open economy model to examine how changes in oil prices affect the macroeconomy. Our model allows oil price changes to be transmitted through temporary demand and supply channels (affecting the output gap), as well as through persistent supply side effects (affecting trend growth).

Good Policies or Good Fortune: What Drives the Compression in Emerging Market Spreads?

Staff Working Paper 2008-25 Philipp Maier, Garima Vasishtha
Since 2002, spreads on emerging market sovereign debt have fallen to historical lows. Given the close links between sovereign spreads, capital flows to emerging markets, and economic growth, understanding the factors driving these spreads is very important. We address this issue in two stages.

A Wave of Protectionism? An Analysis of Economic and Political Considerations

Staff Working Paper 2008-2 Philipp Maier
In light of the U.S. current account deficit, pressure is high on Asian countries to revalue their currencies. The calls from some U.S. policymakers for tariffs on imports from China has sparked fears that this could trigger a world-wide surge in protectionism.

A vision for IMF Surveillance

Staff Working Paper 2007-37 Robert Lavigne, Philipp Maier, Eric Santor
The ongoing review of the IMF, initiated in 2005 by Managing Director De Rato, presents an excellent opportunity to re-examine the role, functions and governance of the Fund.

Do We Need the IMF to Resolve a Crisis? Lessons from Past Episodes of Debt Restructuring

Staff Working Paper 2007-10 Philipp Maier
This study investigate how debt restructurings have evolved over the decades. Debtors and creditors have a long history of engaging an outsider – a “third party”, such as the IMF – to organise and facilitate debt restructurings.
Content Type(s): Staff Research, Staff Working Papers Topic(s): Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, F, F3, N, N1, N2

Journal Publications

Refereed Journals

  • "Hedge Funds and Financial Stability: Regulating Prime Brokers Will Mitigate Systemic Risks"
    (with Michael King), Journal of Financial Stability, 2009, forthcoming.
  • "Renewing IMF Surveillance: Transparency, Accountability and Independence"
    (with Eric Santor and Robert Lavigne, Review of International Organizations, March 2009, 4: 1
  • "A wave of protectionism? An analysis of economic and political considerations"
    World Economy 2009, 9:2
  • "EMU enlargement: Why flexibility matters"
    (with Maarten Hendrikx), Beyond Transition 2007, January-March, 3.
  • Kakes, J., Maier, P. and Sturm, J.-E.: 2001, Monetary transmission and bank lending in Germany, Kredit und Kapital 31 (4), 505-525.
  • Leertouwer, E. and Maier, P.: 2001, Who creates political business cycles?, European Journal of Political Economy 17 (3), 445-463.
  • Leertouwer, E. and Maier, P.: 2002, International and domestic constraints on political business cycles in OECD economies: A comment, International Organization 56 (1), 209-221.
  • Maier, P.: 2000, Pressure on the Bundesbank?, Kredit und Kapital 33 (4), 1-30.
  • Maier, P.: 2002b, Rhetoric and action, Public Choice 112 (3-4), 235-258.
  • Maier, P. and Bezoen, S.: 2004, Supporting and bashing central banks: The Bundesbank and the European Central Bank, European Journal of Political Economy 20 (4), 923-939.
  • Maier, P. and Cavelaars, P.: 2004, Convergence of price levels: Lessons from the German reunification, Journal of Comparative Economics 32 no3, 467-481.
  • Maier, P. and Hendrikx, M.: 2003, Implications of EMU enlargement for European monetary policy: A political economy view, Kredit und Kapital 36 (2), 137-166.
  • Maier, P. and Knaap, T.: 2002, Who supported the Deutsche Bundesbank?, Journal of Policy Modeling 24 (9), 831-851.
  • Maier, P., Sturm, J.-E. and de Haan, J.: 2002, Political pressure on the Bundesbank: An empirical investigation using the Havrilesky approach, Journal of Macroeconomics 24 (1), 103-123.

Books

  • Maier, P.: 2002a, Political Pressure, Rhetoric and Monetary Policy: Lessons for the European Central Bank, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.
  • Maier, P. and de Haan, J.: 2000, How independent is the Bundesbank really? A survey, in J. de Haan (ed.), History of the Bundesbank: Lessons for the ECB, Routledge, London, pp. 6-42.

Other Publications

  • King, M. R. and Maier, P.: 2009b, Would greater regulation of hedge funds reduce systemic risk?, in R. W. Kolb (ed.), Lessons from the Financial Crisis: Insights and Analysis from Today's Leading Minds, John Wiley
  • Bosman, R., Maier, P., Sadiraj, V. and van Winden, F.: 2004, Let Me Vote! An experimental study of the effects of vote rotation in committees, De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper Series 23.
  • Maier, P.: 2004, EMU enlargement, inflation, and adjustment of tradable goods prices: What to expect?, De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper Series 10.
  • Maier, P.: 2005a, A Global Village without borders? International price differentials at eBay, De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper Series 44.
  • Maier, P.: 2006, International reserve accumulation: Main drivers, The Accumulation of Foreign Reserves, ECB Occasional Studies, Vol. 43, European Central Bank.
  • Maier, P., Bierut, B. and Berben, R.-P.: 2003, Information accuracy and the optimal representation of regions in a currency union, De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper Series 2003-08.
  • Wellink, A., Chapple, B. and Maier, P.: 2002, The role of national central banks within the European System of Central Banks: The example of De Nederlandsche Bank, Bank of Austria, 30th Economics Conference, Conference Volume pp. 169-189.