Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
215
result(s)
Online Job Seekers in Canada: What Can We Learn from Bing Job Queries?
Staff Analytical Note 2019-18
André Binette,
Karyne B. Charbonneau,
Nicholas Curtis,
Gabriela Galassi,
Scott Counts,
Justin Cranshaw
Labour markets in Canada and around the world are evolving rapidly with the digital economy. Traditional data are adapting gradually but are not yet able to provide timely information on this evolution.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C80,
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21
A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market
Staff Analytical Note 2019-17
Reinhard Ellwanger
This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
Q,
Q4,
Q41,
Q43
Assessing the Resilience of the Canadian Banking System
Staff Analytical Note 2019-16
Charles Gaa,
Xuezhi Liu,
Cameron MacDonald,
Xiangjin Shen
The stability of the Canadian financial system, as well as its ability to support the Canadian economy, depends on the ability of financial institutions to absorb and manage major shocks. This is especially true for large banks, which perform services essential to the Canadian economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
C6,
C63,
E,
E2,
E27,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E44,
G,
G0,
G01,
G2,
G21
Measuring Non-Financial Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2019-15
Timothy Grieder,
Claire Schaffter
The ratio of non-financial corporate debt to gross domestic product in Canada has increased noticeably in recent years and is currently at an all-time high. In light of this development, we use a unique firm-level dataset to construct vulnerability indicators for the non-financial corporate sector in Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial stability,
Monetary and financial indicators,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Sectoral balance sheet
JEL Code(s):
G,
G0,
G01,
G3,
G32
Reassessing the Growth of HELOCs in Canada Using New Regulatory Data
Staff Analytical Note 2019-14
Leila Al-Mqbali,
Olga Bilyk,
Stefan Caputo,
James Younker
Using new regulatory data on residential secured lending from Canadian banks, we assess the growth rate of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
G,
G2,
G21,
G28
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2019
Staff Analytical Note 2019-13
Fares Bounajm,
Jean-Philippe Cayen,
Michael Francis,
Christopher Hajzler,
Kristina Hess,
Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle,
Peter Selcuk
This note presents the updated estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2021. Global potential output is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent per year over the projection horizon.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E10,
E2,
E20,
O,
O4
Disentangling the Factors Driving Housing Resales
Staff Analytical Note 2019-12
Mikael Khan,
Taylor Webley
We use a recently developed model and loan-level microdata to decompose movements in housing resales since 2015. We find that fundamental factors, namely housing affordability and full-time employment, have had offsetting effects on resales over our study period.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Housing,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
E,
E2,
R,
R2,
R21
The Neutral Rate in Canada: 2019 Update
Staff Analytical Note 2019-11
Thomas J. Carter,
Xin Scott Chen,
José Dorich
This note provides an update on Bank of Canada staff’s assessment of the Canadian neutral rate. The neutral rate is the policy rate needed to keep output at its potential level and inflation at target once the effects of any cyclical shocks have dissipated. This medium- to long-run concept serves as a benchmark for gauging the degree of monetary stimulus provided by a given policy setting.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E40,
E43,
E5,
E50,
E52,
E58,
F,
F4,
F41
Potential Output in Canada: 2019 Reassessment
Staff Analytical Note 2019-10
Dany Brouillette,
Julien Champagne,
Carol Khoury,
Natalia Kyui,
Jeffrey Mollins,
Youngmin Park
Potential output is expected to grow on average at 1.8 per cent over 2019–21 and at 1.9 per cent in 2022. While the contribution of trend labour input to potential output growth is expected to decrease between 2019 and 2022, the contribution of trend labour productivity is projected to increase.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E0,
E00,
E2,
E22,
E23,
E24,
E3,
E37,
E6