The authors investigate financial spillovers across countries with an emphasis on the effect of shocks to financial conditions in the United States on financial conditions and economic activity in Canada. These questions are addressed within a global vector autoregression model.
This article explores the role of inflation expectations in the conduct of monetary policy. It reviews the various measures of inflation expectations used by central banks, including surveys and market-based indicators, and considers their advantages and disadvantages. It examines the critical role of inflation expectations in the framework that central banks use to understand, forecast, and control inflation. It also looks at their role as an indicator of central bank credibility. The behaviour of inflation expectations over the past two years is analyzed and policy conclusions are offered.
Over the past 15 years, long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1970s. This paper explores possible shifts in global savings and investment that have led to this fall in the world real interest rate.
Over the past 25 years, world long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1960s. This decline has been accompanied by falling world investment and savings rates. The authors explore global saving and investment outcomes that have led to the fall in the world real interest rate. The results show that the key factors explaining movements in savings and investment are variables that evolve relatively slowly over time, such as labour force growth and the age structure of the world economy. The conclusions suggest that, over the coming years, it is unlikely that these slowly changing variables will be a source of significant changes in world real interest rates.
World Real Interest Rates: A Global Savings and Investment Perspective (with Michael Francis), Applied Economics, forthcoming in 2008H2.
Evaluating Threshold Effects in Consumer Sentiment (with Marc-André Gosselin), Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 70, April 2004.
"The Transmission of World Shocks to Emerging-Market Countries: An Empirical Analysis" Money Affairs, Vol. XVIII, No. 2, July-December 2005.
"Explicación de cómo se transmiten los choques mundiales a los países de mercados emergentes: un análisis empírico" Monetaria, Vol. XXVIII, No. 3, July-September 2005.
"Institutional Reform, Trade and Growth: The Experiences of India and China in a Global Economy" (with Michael Francis and Francois Painchaud). Proceedings of the International Conference on Economic Reforms in India and China, Indira Gandhi Institute, February 2005.