E40 - General

• Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-16 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Ingomar Krohn, Jan David Schneider

  We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon

  We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• How changes in the share of constrained households affect the effectiveness of monetary policy

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-3 Felipe Alves, Sushant Acharya

  We measure how the change in the share of constrained households in Canada following the COVID-19 recession has impacted the effectiveness of monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E40, E5, E50

• Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas

  Staff Working Paper 2023-62 Qi Li, Xu Zhang

  We find that minority households see greater declines in housing returns and entries into homeownership than White households after a tightening of monetary policy. Our findings emphasize the unintended consequences of monetary policy on racial inequality in the housing market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Housing, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E52, R, R0, R00

• Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory

  Staff Working Paper 2023-11 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang

  We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40

• ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

  Technical Report No. 119 Paul Corrigan, Hélène Desgagnés, José Dorich, Vadym Lepetyuk, Wataru Miyamoto, Yang Zhang

  ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Housing, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, E6, E62, E65, F, F4, F40, F41, G, G5, G51

• How Long is Forever in the Laboratory? Three Implementations of an Infinite-Horizon Monetary Economy

  Staff Working Paper 2021-16 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang

  Standard monetary models adopt an infinite horizon with discounting. Testing these models in the lab requires implementing this horizon within a limited time frame. We compare three approaches to such an implementation and discuss their relative advantages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40

• 2020 US Neutral Rate Assessment

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-12 James Bootsma, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Christopher Hajzler, Argyn Toktamyssov

  This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US neutral rate, along with a newly developed set of models on which that assessment is based. The overall assessment is that the US neutral rate currently lies in a range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Short-Run Dynamics in a Search-Theoretic Model of Monetary Exchange

  Staff Working Paper 2020-48 Jonathan Chiu, Miguel Molico

  We study the short-run effects of monetary policy using a search-theoretic monetary model in which agents are subject to idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate monetary shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E5, E50

• The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-24 Dmitry Matveev, Julien McDonald-Guimond, Rodrigo Sekkel

  The neutral rate of interest is important for central banks because it helps measure the stance of monetary policy. We present updated estimates of the neutral rate in Canada using the most recent data. We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to significantly affect the fundamental drivers of the Canadian neutral rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41